Hi guys, we move on to Day Two of the Randox Grand National Aintree Festival where we have two small field races with 6 & 7 runners respectively but we also have a further five races with between 14 & 29 runners to get stuck in to where we have hopefully found some each way value.
1.45pm Aintree – 3m1f (3m210y) (Mildmay) Air Charter Service Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
GERRI COLOMBE
1 POINT WIN BET ADVISED AT A WIDELY AVAILABLE 8/13
Being a 6-runner race this isn’t much of a betting medium for each way punters and, even worse, I was with Gerri Colombe when he could be considered a little unlucky to finish 2nd at Cheltenham and see no reason why I should change allegiance here even though this is certainly no one horse race. The re-opposing Bronn (7/2) was more than 4 lengths behind him on that occasion and while he is an improving 6 year old he will have to take another good step forward to reverse the form meeting him on the same terms today.
Complete Unknown (6/1) is an improving Paul Nicholls trained 7 year old who has 8lb to find on Racing Post Ratings with the Favourite and might be able to if improving further while the Racing Post Spotlight column have gone with Galia Des Liteaux (12/1) thinking the 7 year old mare will be better suited by this track. For me, Gerri Colombe is the best horse in the race and wins if he puts his best foot forward today.
2.20pm Aintree – 2m4f William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
MARTELLO SKY
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 16/1 AVAILABLE WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 6 PLACES
PULL AGAIN GREEN
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 14/1 AVAILABLE WITH BET365 PAYING 6 PLACES
This is a 22-runner handicap where many of the runners have winning chances so I have gone with a couple who I think will give us a good run for our money. Several firms are paying 6 places on the race while Skybet are the only bookmaker who are offering the first 7 home.
I like the first-time booking of Rachel Blackmore on Martello Sky who has dropped 7lb down the weights since January 2022. The 7 year old mare runs in a handicap for the first time since December 2021 when she won at Cheltenham off a 3lb higher mark. This track should suit and the ground looks ideal for her. Could go well at a price.
We saw yesterday Fergal O’Brien has his string in decent order (Last 14 days: 5-29, 17%) with his 5 year old mare Dysart Enos taking the bumper at 5.15. Pull Again Green could be on a good mark having dropped 6lb down the weights since October and has Liam Harrison taking a further 3lb off his back. He is just 2lb above his last winning mark, will be suited by this return to better ground, is having his second run since a wind operation, and this 2m4f here looks ideal for him.
2.55pm Aintree – 2m½f (2m103y) Poundland Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
HULLNABACK
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 15/2 AVAILABLE WITH BETWAY PAYING 4 PLACES
NO LOOKING BACK
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 8/1 AVAILABLE WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 4 PLACES
This is a 13-runner Grade 1 Novices’ Hurdle race over 16.5f where I think the head of the market has got it right. The joint Favourites at 4/1 are Found A Fifty and Inthepocket with Luccia at 9/2 and all three have obvious winning chances however the next two in the betting are Hullnaback (7/1) and No Looking Back (8/1) and, unable to split them, these are the two I have gone for with at least 12 firms paying 4 places on the race.
Hullnaback finished 2ndof 18 in a bumper at this meeting last year and has looked progressive in his three starts over hurdles since October winning his last race at Warwick 62 days ago easily by 9.5 lengths. He will have to improve to take this but we have no idea how good he is yet so hopefully he can run a big race for us.
No Looking Back is a 5 year old Irish Raider hailing from the Oliver McKiernan yard who are in very hot form (Last 14 days: 3-5, 60%). The selection finished a running-on 2nd over 15.5f at Naas last month where he ran to a Racing Post Rating of 148 and won’t need to improve much to win this. He looked that day like the extra distance would suit and being so young surely has more to offer.
3.30pm Aintree – 2m4f (2m3f200y) (Mildmay) Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
FRENCH DYNAMITE
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 15/2 AVAILABLE WITH BET365 PAYING 3 PLACES
This is the 7-runner Marsh Chase run over 2m4f and I have it between the Favourite, Fakir D’Oudairies (2/1), and French Dynamite (7/1) so at the prices I am with the latter especially with BET365 paying the first 3 home in this 7-runner race.
The Favourite has won this race for the past two years so is obviously well-suited by the course and coming here after another decent 3 run preparation, with the application of first-time cheek-pieces a possible source of improvement, he obviously has a good chance of going in again. However, the 8 year old gelding French Dynamite ran to a career best Racing Post Rating of 162 last time, he will be fully-fit on his sixth start of the campaign, and he could be best suited by today’s better ground.
16.05pm Aintree – 2m5f (2m5f19y) (Grand National) Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
HAUT EN COLEURS
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 10/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 6 PLACES
FANTASTIC LADY
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 33/1 WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 6 PLACES
This is the 29-runner Topham and easily the most difficult race of the day being pretty impossible to figure out with many horses having winning chances and you should definitely be taking advantage of the 7 places on offer with Skybet and Betway. So, I narrowed it down to the six I like best before choosing a couple that possibly represent the best value at their respective prices.
The horses I like are Al Dancer (9/1), Haut En Coleurs (10/1), Equus Dancer (12/1), Fantastikas (16/1), Numitor (22/1), Fantastic Lady (33/1) with the two I have opted for being Haut En Coleursand Fantastic Lady.
Haut En Coleurs is a classy Willie Mullins trained 6 year old who is versatile ground wise. Paul Townend has chosen to ride him out of Willie’s four runners, he will be fully-fit on his on his fifth start of the season, he is a sound jumper, and he could still have further improvement in him.
Fantastic Lady is a Nicky Henderson trained 8 year old mare who has been kept fresh for this. She was sent off at just 14/1 for the race last year when unfortunately departing at the first but jumping is one of her main strengths so hopefully there will be no repeat of that. She is 4lb higher this year bus a year stronger and I just think she is over-priced at 33’s and could surprise.
16.40pm Aintree – 3m½f (3m149y) Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
GREY DAWNING
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 15/2 WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 4 PLACES
This is the 16-runner Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle run over 24.5f and I’m afraid it doesn’t get any easier with many of the runners having winning chances. Most firms are paying 4 places on the race while Skybet are offering the first 5 home.
My only pick in the race is Grey Dawning a 6 year old Dan Skelton trained gelding who has won his last three races running to progressive Racing Post Ratings (122, 129, & 143) and he may not have stopped improving yet. The step up an extra 3 furlongs in trip could bring about further improvement, the yard are in form (Last 14 days: 7-43, 16%), and any rain would help his cause but he isn’t dependent on it having won on today’s forecast Good to Soft back in December.
17.15pm Aintree – 2m½f (2m103y) Abersoch Land And Sea Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)
PARRAMOUNT
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 7/1 WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 5 PLACES
GO DANTE
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 8/1 WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 5 PLACES
The lucky last is a 22-runner wide open Conditional Jockeys’ and Amateur Riders’ handicap where the two I like are Parramount (7/1) and Go Dante (8/1).
Parramount is a 7 year old Charlie Longsdon trained gelding who has massively improved since a tongue-tie was added back in November having won 3 races since and finished 2nd in the other. He best a subsequent winner last time franking the form and with the excellent Bradley Roberts taking a very useful 7lb off his back he surely has to go close.
Jamie Codd is a great first-time booking on Go Dante who has had a nice prep for this having had 3 runs since January and winning last time out. Off a mark of just 127 he surely still has more to offer. The application of first-time cheek-pieces could spark further improvement and he seems to have plenty going for him.
Good luck with all your bets today!
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