Hi guys, the final day of the 2023 Aintree Grand National Festival is here so we have 7 races to pull it back from what has been a very tough couple of days. There was little to celebrate yesterday other than a 33/1 second place which would have made it a very different day had she won but it wasn’t to be. On the rare occasions I have a poor day results wise, I work even harder so the 5.15 race yesterday was barely over before I got stuck in to studying today’s race cards. Many hours work has gone in since so I’m hoping for a much better day. Good luck!
1.45pm Aintree – 2m (1m7f176y) (Mildmay) EFT Systems Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
JONBON
1 POINT WIN BET ADVISED AT 2/5 WITH THESE FIRMS
Jonbon is a very good horse winning 4 of his last 5 with the only defeat coming when I had El Fabiolo tipped to beat him at Cheltenham last month. He is the clear pick on Racing Post Ratings with the second Favourite, Notlongtillmay (5/1), having 9lb to find with him and he is probably better over 2m4f than this drop back to 2-miles so it will be a surprise if he wins if Jonbon puts his best foot forward. The other three runners priced between 13/1 & 33/1 have between 16lb & 23lb to find with the Favourite, which looks unlikely as they’re fairly exposed, so I’m afraid I’m not going to put forward anything at a bigger price so it has to be Jonbon for me.
2.25pm Aintree – 3m½f (3m149y) Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
MEXICO
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 7/1 AVAILABLE WITH BET365 PAYING 6 PLACES
MOON HUNTER
0.5 POINTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 20/1 AVAILABLE WITH BET365 PAYING 6 PLACES
I think Mexico has to be backed in this running off 10st 10lb and a mark of just 129 as he is completely unexposed at staying trips. His trainer, Stuart Edmonds, admitted he had been running him at the “wrong trip all season” after he won by 8.5 lengths never coming off the bridle on Soft Going when stepped up to 3 miles at Uttoxeter for the first time 2 weeks ago. Up 7lb here but still on a low mark/weight he could have plenty more to offer. He may want easier underfoot conditions than he’ll get today but he has won on Good Going so I’m hoping it won’t inconvenience him too much.
Moon Hunter is 6 year old gelding who could easily come in to the reckoning now the track appears to be drying out. It is officially Good to Soft, Soft in places as I write this at 8am but the forecast is for a dry/warm/sunny day at Aintree so it is possible the Going will be different by the time this race jumps off. Moon Hunter is a former 3-mile point winner who I think has more to offer now stepping up in trip off his lenient looking mark of 129. He will be fully-fit on his fifth start since November and Richard Patrick is a very capable first-time booking.
3.00pm Aintree – 2m4f Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
HERMES ALLEN
1 POINT WIN BET ADVISED AT THE 7/2 AVAILABLE WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS
I am with the Paul Nicholls trained Hermes Allen in this because he is the proven class horse having already won a Grade 1 at Newbury last December. He under-performed at Cheltenham last month when perhaps unsuited by the Going but he is better than that and could well get back on track today with the flat track at Aintree expected to suit.
3.35pm Aintree – 3m½f (3m149y) JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
HOME BY THE LEE
1 POINT WIN BET ADVISED AT THE 4/1 AVAILABLE WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS
This is a highly competitive, wide open, 10-runner Grade 1 race where many have winning chances. With that said, the two I like most are at the head of the market. Home By The Lee (7/2) & Marie’s Rock (4/1). It definitely isn’t a very tempting betting medium so the advice, if you have to have a bet, is to keep your stakes small.
I was with Marie’s Rock at Cheltenham when she didn’t run her race at all with connections saying the slow pace of the race didn’t suit her. However, I know she has been going well at home and I think she has been crying out for this first-time step up to 3-miles. She could easily bounce back but the dilemma is whether to back her at 4/1 after such a poor performance last time. I am good friends with one of the owners so hope for him she runs a blinder.
My pick though has to be Home By The Lee who is much improved this season and who I thought was unlucky not to win the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month where he finished a good staying on 3.75 lengths 5th considering he made a near race ending mistake at the sixth flight and had his ground taken from him just before the last flight. Given normal luck in running today he shouldn’t be far away.
16.15pm Aintree – 3m1f (3m210y) (Mildmay) William Hill Handicap Chase (Registered As The Freebooter Handicap Chase) (Premier Handicap) (GBB) (Class 1) (5yo+)
SHAKEM UP’ARRY
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 6/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 5 PLACES
You will probably have noticed a bit of a theme with my selections today where I have gone for horses who prefer better ground so let’s hope I have got it right as my/our chances of being successful today depend on it! The Going remains the most unpredictable variable and has been so very changeable at Aintree this week riding Good on Tuesday when all the forecasts suggested Soft so hopefully something similar will happen today.
With that said, I am with Shakem Up’Arry in this with the drying conditions in his favour. He has looked a much improved horse since a tongue-tie was added three starts back and off a mark of 140 he may still have more to offer. He travels well in his races, should be suited by this flat track, and should get home over this sharp 3m1f provided the ground dries out.
17.15pm Aintree – 4m2½f (4m2f74y) (Grand National) Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (7yo+)
CORACH RAMBLER
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT A WIDELY AVAILABLE 10/1 WITH BETWAY PAYING 7 PLACES
GALLIARD DU MESNIL
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 12/1 WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 6 PLACES
This is the race we have all been waiting for and I personally love it having watched it every year since I backed L’Escargot to win in 1975. It is a 40-runner, wide open, renewal where many have winning chances but I have narrowed it down to the two I thought had the best chance given the drying ground at the track.
I had Corach Rambler tipped when he won the Ultima over 3m1f at Cheltenham last month and I’ve made no secret of the fact on Twitter that I think he will stay this extra 1m1f. He was as short as 6/1 for the race about a week ago but has drifted to a better value 10’s because the price was too short but also because there has been money for several other, mainly Irish trained, horses. Also, plenty has been made of the fact he is a hold-up horse who will need luck in running coming from behind in a 40-runner race and that is true but he managed to do it two years in a row at Cheltenham so can hopefully do it today again. He runs off the same mark today as when winning at Cheltenham and is due to go up 10lb in the future so is obviously well-handicapped and he is also versatile ground wise having won on Good ground twice, Soft Going once, and Heavy ground once so he won’t care what the weather does.
Galliard Du Mesnil is a classy, improving, Willie Mullins trained gelding who finished 3rd in the Irish National last year over 3m5f and showed he stays 3m6f well when winning a Grade 2 race at Cheltenham last month. He hasn’t finished out of the first three in his nine races over fences and today’s step up in trip could bring about further improvement. He looks a very solid each way bet with several firms offering 7 places on the race.
At bigger prices, I hinted on Twitter last week that Roi Mage had an each way chance but I feel the drying ground isn’t in his favour. Anyway, this is some of what I wrote so you can make your own mind up if we find after a race or two the ground is riding slower than I think it might.
Roi Mage Is an 11 year old Irish runner originally imported from France and while the race has changed with the latest key trends telling us 11 is older than ideal to win the Grand National in modern times, with the last 7 runnings of the race going to 7-9 year olds, it is easy to forget an 11 year old won the race in 2012, 2013, & 2014. Plus, with Saint Are finishing 3rd aged 11 in 2017, Bless The Wings finishing 3rd aged 13 in 2018, and Rathvinden finishing 3rd aged 11 in 2019, I don’t believe for one second the race couldn’t go to an older horse in the future or even this year again.
He has shortened from 150/1 to 25/1 in recent weeks, will be approaching peak fitness on his fifth start since November, trainer Patrick Griffin is having a better than average season, and I liked the way he was coming back late at the re-opposing Longhouse Poet (20/1) when going down by just 1.25L over 3m 2f at Down Royal last month. He meets him here on much better terms. I also don’t think he is fully exposed yet over staying trips and with him being spotted running-on late over 3m3f & 3m6f I think this first time try at the marathon 4m2.5f might even bring about improvement.
18.20pm Aintree – 2m1f (2m209y) Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-6yo)
POUR LES FILLES
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 6/1 WITH WILLIAM HILL PAYING 4 PLACES
BEAT THE BAT
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 8/1 WITH THESE FIRMS PAYING 5 PLACES
The lucky last today is at 6.20pm due to the running of the Grand National just before it and you will need to be extremely lucky to pick the winner of it today with it being am impossible to figure out 20-runner race full of young horses, many of whom have only ran once, open to 20lb of improvement from their last start. Please treat the race with caution from a betting perspective as it’s certainly not one to go chasing your money in or to be overly confident about.
So, I have gave you my two best guesses which are Pour Les Filles & Beat The Bat.
Pour Les Filles is a 5 year old Gordon Elliott trained gelding who has already won a 3-mile point-to-point and a 2-mile bumper and I think it’s interesting that Davy Russell takes he ride for the first-time as he actually bought the gelding as a three-year-old so knows him well. He has already run to a Racing Post Rating of 124 which compares well in the context of this race and it would be no surprise to see him going well.
Back in December, Beat The Bat finished a short-head 2nd to Golden Ace who went on to finish a very good 2nd of 20 in the Grade 2 bumper here on Tuesday past and the selection improved to win his second start on Good to Soft at Chepstow 7 weeks ago while running to a Racing Post Rating of 119. He could easily go well and looks worth an each way interest at the 16/1 with BET365 who are offering 4 places on the race.
The very best of luck on the final day of the Festival guys!
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