INVESTEC DERBY (Group 1) 4.55pm EPSOM

SELECTION – WORTHILY – 28/1

EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 28/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS PAYING 4 PLACES…

I’ve spent many hours trying to weigh up the form of this very competitive, open looking renewal of the Derby, assessing previous year’s trends trying to find the horse with the pedigree and qualities required to win an Epsom Derby. So, I’ll run through my thinking below where you may be surprised to read I don’t fancy any of the four at the head of the betting market:

English King (4/1) has been the Favourite for the race for some time now and was impressive when winning his Lingfield Derby trial in good style. Other positives are the first-time booking of Frankie Dettori, the fact he has had a 29 day break since his last run, and he will definitely stay the trip so will be running on late. However, since the turn of the century no horses drawn in Stall 1 have won a race over 1m4f at Epsom with this size of a field. So, that stat coupled with his short price mean he is reluctantly passed over today. Kameko (9/2) is the form horse having won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, on Good to Firm, 4 weeks ago and it’s a plus that he has been rested since. However, his pedigree suggests he may struggle to stay 1m4f on easier ground and having watched the Guineas back a few times I agree. I have concerns about Russian Emperor (11/2) having his third tough race today in the space of 25 days. He also looks Aidan O’Brien’s second string on jockey bookings. Aidan O’Brien’s Mogul (8/1) has been well touted for this, has Ryan Moore booked, and has an excellent Derby pedigree but he “looked fat” at Ascot 18 days ago before been well beaten (by my 14/1 tip Pyledriver) and he doesn’t have a favourable draw in Stall 2. He will definitely improve but it has hardly been an ideal preparation for this so he may not yet be fit enough to win. I’m against Vatican City (11/1) on breeding as his pedigree suggests he is highly unlikely to stay today’s 1m4f trip. I tipped Pyledriver (18/1) when he won his Group 2 at Ascot recently but he had the benefit of a run that day and his trainer, William Muir, has never won a Group 1. This looks a much harder race and I think a few may have improved past him.

With this year’s run up to the Derby being seriously effected by the Covid-19 outbreak, I’m thinking there could be a shock result on the cards. Horses haven’t had the typical amount of runs they would normally have had so past year’s form lines really have to be disregarded. So, I’m opting for the potential of the John Gosden trained Worthily who impressed me by picking up nicely when asked when winning his debut over 1m2f at Newbury, on today’s Good ground, 23 days ago. The second home was a very good William Haggas trained Nathaniel colt who has franked the form since by winning over 1m4f at Haydock 10 days ago. The selection has plenty of stamina and Group 1 winning form in his pedigree. He has an excellent draw in stall 9 and the mere fact master trainer, John Gosden, has entered him in this makes him of interest. Each way advised at 28/1 with 4 places on offer. Good luck!

Jibber Jabber

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