EMIYN – 5.00 NAAS
EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 9/2 AVAILABLE WITH ALL THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS…
The 4 o’clock is an awful race to bet in because Sir Dragonet is way ahead of his rivals on ratings but he wouldn’t be for me at 4/6, against potential improvers, perhaps needing the run off a 191 day break over a trip which, he showed last August when 4th at the Curragh, is shorter than ideal. However, with that said, he is still the most likely winner as having gone through each of his rivals it is difficult to see what beats him. I considered the “Betting Without the Favourite” markets but even then I could only really narrow it down to Numerian (3/1), Halimi (4/1), & Nickajack Cave (5/1) with no strong opinion as to which one may come out on top so I’m afraid it’s a watching brief for me in this one.
I think the Favourite, Even So, will win the 4.30 but I’m not going to tip or back her at Evens when value as big as 3/1 was available last night. She went in to plenty of people’s trackers after impressively winning her 13-runner Maiden at Gowran last September and she looked then like the type to do well from 2 to 3. The strong support for her would suggest that she has strengthened up nicely and blossomed over the Winter. She holds a 1,000 Guineas entry (Group 1) at Newmarket in May and I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t take this before moving on to better things. If she fails to give her running or for those looking an each way bet at bigger odds I like Raven’s Cry & Lemista (both 7/1) in that order.
At first glance, the 5 o’clock race looks tough to predict being a 17-runner maiden but there seems to be plenty of dead wood floating about so I don’t give too many chances of winning it. The Aidan O’Brien trained 5/4 Favourite, Russian Emperor, has an obvious chance but will hopefully need the run so I’m taking him on with Emiyn who made a good impression only going down by 1.5 lengths when making his debut in similar testing ground to today when finishing 4th of 17 over C&D last November. It was a good race and he ran to an RPR of 81 which compares well with those who have form in this field. This Dermot Weld trained 3 year old colt holds a couple of Group 1 entries so should have more to offer this year. I can see him going close in this before moving on to better things so he is a fairly confident selection.
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