TEST VALLEY – 8.30pm CHEPSTOW
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 20/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS…
This is a risky 20/1 shot from me to end the day with so only small stakes are advised. However, he looks worth an each way punt at the price. The selection, Test Valley, has dropped 10lb down the weights since this time last year to a career low mark of 50 and his best run to date came on his only attempt around this trip when he competitively ran to a Racing Post Rating of 63 in May 2019 against several horses who are rated much higher now. He has been tried over trips from 5f to 1m3.5f but my suspicion is he will be suited by tonight’s 1m4f as he was running on well when tried over 1m3.5f last year.
He made his debut for this stable over 1m2f in a Class 5 (0-68) at Bath 5 days ago but reportedly “ran too freely” and completely threw his chance away by going off much too hard. He’s risky because he could do that again but, if settling better, I’m convinced he is very well handicapped dropped in to this Class 6 (0-58) and could surprise. Apprentice, Tyler Heard, who was on him last week and takes a useful 7lb off his back, will hopefully have learned from the experience too, get him to calm down, and produce a better run this time.
I’ve recommended backing the selection with two bookmakers offering the best industry price of 20/1 but they are only paying 3 places. However, there are several bookmakers paying 4 places on this race at lower odds (William Hill, Paddy Power, Unibet, Betway, Betfred, and Boylesports) so extra place insurance may not be such a bad idea with 12 runners and Test Valley a risky proposition. Good luck!
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