ALFIES WATCH – 2.45 CHEPSTOW
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT A GENERALLY AVAILABLE 25/1…
The lightly-raced 3 year old gelding Alfies Watch looks worth an each way interest at his current 25/1 price having been dropped 6lb for his last two runs and also going down from a Class 5 (0-75) to a Class 6 (0-65) event today.
As many of you will know, I scrutinise every horse in the race before making my selection and I see no reason why Alfies Watch, who ran to best Racing Post Ratings of 67 & 69 last year, should be 25/1 when the three at the head of the market who are 2/1, 3/1, & 3/1 have only ran to bests of 61 & 63, 63 & 67, 60 & 65. He looks reasonably treated with only 2lb separating the 4 horses in this tight handicap today.
I watched replays of those two good runs of Alfies Watch in Novice events where he was 3rd of 6 then 3rd of 9 and both were promising with the races working out well. In the first he was in receipt of just 2lb but ran on well over 5.5f (giving hope he will stay today’s first attempt at 7f) getting to within a quarter of a length of a subsequent winner now rated 83 and in the second he got beat 4.25 lengths by a subsequent winner now rated 91. He was in receipt of 7lb that day but running off a mark of 65 here it’s possible he is well-handicapped.
He really needed his first run last year so it was no surprise to see him finish well down the field at Lingfield 40 days ago returning from a 217 day break. He should strip fitter for that and with Luke Morris taking over in the saddle he will hopefully give us a run for our money. Good luck!
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