NATALIE’S JOY (NAP) – 3.20pm PONTEFRACT
1PT EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 20/1 ONLY AVAILABLE WITH BET365 OR GENERALLY AVAILABLE AT 18/1 ELSEWHERE
I give the outsider of the field, Natalie’s Joy (20/1), a good each way chance in this based on her 2 year old form where she very comfortably won the 6f Listed Rose Bowl Stakes from the front with the 3rd home (Emaraaty Ana), who she beat by 2.25 lengths, winning the hotly contested Group 2 Gimcrack stakes at York on her next start. The selection won the race in a comparably fast time running to an RPR of 99 making it top notch 2 year old sprint form.
She also showed a good attitude that day when challenged entering final furlong quickening up well, striding out nicely with her stamina coming in to play the further they went, and looking like she would be well suited by today’s mile (a trip which I think she may still have considerable untapped potential over). On breeding, not only does a mile suit, being a Lope De Vega filly out of an unraced mare by Zamindar, but this mile at Pontefract with it’s stiff uphill finish where stamina is always at a premium looks like optimal conditions for her and could easily unlock further improvement.
Her Rose Bowl win was on Good to Firm ground which wasn’t ideal for her but today’s conditions – Good to Firm, Good in places, and a Going Stick reading of 8.2 taken at the track yesterday evening with light rain in the area but a dry night forecast – look perfect.
You may well ask why I’m concentrating on this 4 year old filly’s 2 year old form and the answer is she has only ran twice since that win finishing well down the field on both occasions. In fact, she has only ran five times in total winning twice and, in my opinion having watched replays of all her races, having legitimate excuses on at least two of the other runs.
My Nap reportedly needed her seasonal debut at Kempton 34 days ago but if that has put her spot on for this, and connections employ the same front-running tactics used to win the Rose Bowl (as there is a chance she will get an uncontested lead in this field), then she could prove very hard to peg back up the hill. Each way advised at the price in this 9-runner affair. Good luck!
Jibber Jabber
If you like my write-ups and they’ve helped you then please…
Hi JJ. Fantastic in depth analysis of why you pick a particular horse to back. Both informative and interesting.
You give more basis to back a horse than some country’s do to start a war!
Very good Graham. ? Unfortunately, Natalie’s Joy didn’t do the write-up justice being one of the first to come under pressure before fading tamely. I don’t think she was helped by the rain/ground but, to be honest, it’ll be a watching brief for me next time because excuses or not she still needs to show she retains all the ability she had, when a very talented 2 year old, after being so lightly-raced over the past two years. ?