FIRST CONTACT – 1.15pm ASCOT
EACH WAY BET ADVISED 20/1 WITH PADDY POWER & THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS PAYING 6 PLACES…
All today’s races look competitive and difficult to predict guys so my advice is to keep it fun, bet small stakes, and enjoy Ascot for the spectacle it is. However, it’s a marathon not a sprint so I’m going to use today to gather information for the rest of the week (ie. How exactly is the ground riding?, Where is it best to be drawn?, Is there a Golden Highway?, etc). As there are so many unknowns, I wouldn’t normally tip in many of today’s races but I understand you guys want a flutter on the races at Royal Ascot so I’m happy to oblige. I plan to tip at least 4 horses as I know you love an each way Lucky 15.
We would normally have well-established form lines to refer to by this stage of the season but all we have to go on this year is one run within the past 15 days which is far from ideal as many horses will “bounce” (The “bounce factor” is when a horse produces a below par performance on it’s next run after an extended break) after being off the track for so long.
With all the above said, my first selection is a tentative one in what is probably the most wide open race of the day. I think John Gosden’s Daarik won’t be far away so looks a safe each way bet with bookies paying the first 6 home he is little value at around 7/2. So, I’ve opted for First Contact at much bigger odds. This Charlie Appleby 5 year old fits plenty of the trends for the type of horse which historically wins this race including being a 5 year old and a high draw in stall 20. He has also ran well when fresh and placed in Group 1, Group 2, and Group 3 races so dropping in to a Class 2 handicap off a workable looking mark of 105 he may just have gone under the radar a little. He has won on both Good and Soft so today’s official Good to Soft going doesn’t present any problems and I think the drop back to 7f on it may just be ideal. The yard have hit the ground running (Last 14 days: 10-37, 27%) and William Buick is a top notch booking. I think at 20/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Sport Nation all paying the first 6 places he could give us a good run for our money. Good luck!
Jibber Jabber
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