UPDATED AT 3.37PM: Of course, Farenheit Seven wins guys! 👇👇 I’m happy I called it perfectly but disappointing we missed the early value 9/1 odds on this one.
Here’s what I wrote before the race:
“Hi guys, I told you last night there was a couple more horses I was interested in so I thought I would update you on what was happening with them.
The one that I wanted to see support coming for has drifted markedly in the betting market so I am no longer interested.
The other one that shortened 4 points in from 9/1 to 5/1, as I was assessing the race, was Farenheit Seven in the 10-runner 3.32 race at Pontefract. I was hoping the 4 year old gelding would drift out again this morning to a more backable 7/1-8/1 for 4 places with Paddy Power, Skybet, & Midnite but instead he has shortened right in to 3/1 Favourite.
When I first looked at the horse only Bet365 & William Hill had priced him up and they were offering 8/1 & 9/1 respectively. I think that was in around 4.45pm but 20-30 minutes later, by the time I had decided I thought he could win and was well worth a bet at those odds, he had shortened across the board to 5/1-11/2. The bookmakers, whatever they are now using (faster algorithms or Ai) are simply getting much faster at reducing prices when a horse is fancied or being backed in the early markets. This makes life tougher for both punters and tipsters. Many of the tips I use to give you guys were early value but I’ve been at this a very long time so I’m happy to adapt. It just means I have to look for slightly less obvious horses which don’t reveal themselves until later in the evening or until they’re well-researched.
Would I back Farenheit Seven at 3/1? No, because all “value” is gone and, as each way punters, finding that value is our edge over the bookmakers. I’m prepared to let him win at 3/1 and wait for better each way opportunities where I’m confident there is value built in to the price. The two most important characteristics, in my opinion, required to make you a consistently profitable punter are “discipline” and “patience”.
On Farenheit Seven, why do I think he can win over 5f when he stays 7f? Well, he has won twice over 6f and once at 5f. The 5f win came at Haydock Park where the ground rises steadily from start to finish, with a gentle but consistent incline. The incline is not extreme, but it can expose horses who are fast but don’t truly see out the 5 furlongs. It can favour strong-staying sprinters or horses better over 6f who are dropping back in trip. Plus, when he won there “comfortably” last July he was running off a mark of 75 (runs off 82 here) and he was fully-fit on his fifth start of the season. He is having just his second start back here in what looks a competitive affair.
The 5f at Pontefract is different in that it is run around a left-handed bend (while Haydock is a straight 5f) but the final 3 furlongs is all uphill so the 5f here ends with a much stiffer climb which favours strong-staying sprinters or horses better over 6f dropping back in trip.
Besides this, he is well-drawn in stall 2, and he ran well on his seasonal debut on the All-Weather at Newcastle over 5f in a similar Class 2 race to this 19-days ago where he finished 1.25 lengths 3rd of 7 from a poor draw in stall 1. It was a good run where he achieved a RPR of 87 and if that has brought him on he should go close. His trainer, Mark Usher, says, “Fahrenheit Seven ran really well the last day at Newcastle, a repeat of that should see him in the first three.” I think he looks even better now a 4 year old and could possibly improve again this year.
There are plenty of takeaways from this article 👇👇 for you guys but I think the main one should be: “Always dig deeper!“
My analysis of a race, when given time, is always thorough while I usually give considerable thought to how the race is likely to play out. By “thorough” I mean, for example, if the Racing Post tells me a trainer is in form with a strike rate of 20% (4 winners from 20 runners over the past fortnight) I don’t even take this at face value. Instead, I take a quick look at the trainer’s profile to check if the 4 winners were short-priced Favourites (so expected to win) while the other 16 were all well-beaten. In this case, I ask myself, “Is this yard really in form?” then I factor this in to my decision making process.
In the instance above, by “dig deeper” I mean “think about the track and ground conditions the race is being run on”. If it is a stiff 5f then look beyond raw speed and, as I’ve shown, you’re probably better opting for a horse who stays 6f well or even 7f. Leicester over 5f, particularly on stamina sapping underfoot conditions, is another example of a track that suits “stayers”. It is downhill for the first two furlongs then uphill for the final three including a steep climb to the line. On soft or heavy ground, that uphill final stretch can become very demanding. I have backed winners there using this angle.
Alternatively, at tracks like Epsom, Goodwood, and Lingfield (mainly on turf), as they’re mostly downhill you’re looking for speedy, agile, types with natural acceleration from the gates, the ability to quicken early, and the capacity to maintain it. Front-runners often dominate at Goodwood while it’s also difficult to come from behind at Lingfield.
So, hopefully you can see, I turned this in to an “educational” post guys. If you like and want more articles like this, giving you this more specialised type knowledge used by professional punters, please let me know with a “like” or by leaving a comment. I do read them all and reply to any that ask me questions. I’m even open to suggestions on which racing related topics to write about.
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