Racing Metrics: Clarifying the differences: Speed Figures vs. Pace Ratings
Hi guys, I personally use to get confused by horse racing terms like speed figures, pace ratings, and the subtle differences between the two so I thought this quick explanation of both was worth putting out there. As usual, your feedback in the comments section will tell me if my decision to do this was right or not. Also, down there, please feel free to suggest topics you’d like me to write about going forward.
Speed figures and pace ratings are both extremely valuable tools in horse race analysis, but they focus on different aspects of a horse’s performance and the race itself.
Speed Figures:
Speed figures are numerical representations of a horse’s performance in a specific race, offering a standardised measure of its speed considering various factors such as track condition and race distance.
These figures enable punters to make comparisons across races and tracks, facilitating the identification of horses that consistently outpace their rivals. By assessing speed figures, analysts can gauge a horse’s competitive level, distinguishing between those consistently performing at a high level and those struggling to keep up. Additionally, speed figures aid in evaluating a horse’s progress over time, helping punters discern whether its performance has improved or declined in recent outings. Ultimately, speed figures provide valuable insights into a horse’s racing prowess, aiding in informed betting decisions.
Pace Ratings:
Pace ratings, on the other hand, are more concerned with predicting the flow of a race based on the anticipated pace or tempo of the race at various stages.
These ratings analyse the expected early, middle, and late pace of the race, taking into account how quickly the front-runners and the entire field are projected to run at different stages as the race develops. Understanding a horse’s running style, whether they tend to lead from the start, stalk the leaders, or close from behind, is crucial in pace analysis. Professionals use pace ratings to forecast which horses will likely take the lead early, which ones will make late charges, and how the overall race dynamics might influence their performance.
To summarise, speed figures provide an assessment of how fast a horse has run in previous races, while pace ratings offer insights into the expected speed scenario of a particular race. Both tools are crucial for handicappers/tipsters/punters to understand the potential outcomes of a race and make informed betting decisions.
So, now that I have explained what both are, I thought I should tell you how I use them.
The factors/variables I prioritise when assessing a race are the Going, is the horse I’m interested in coming in for support ideally against a weak Favourite, and how does “my” horse compare on recent form/at the weights against it’s race rivals. I like to have as much information as possible because it’s all useful so I also factor in the draw, trainers comments, the Class of the race, etc, etc, etc. One of the key tools I use alongside speed and pace data is Oddschecker.com. It allows me to compare prices across multiple bookmakers in seconds and see which firms are offering standout value, extra places, or enhanced odds. When you’ve done the hard work of analysing speed figures, pace setups, and race dynamics, it makes sense to ensure you’re getting the best odds on your bet. No point in me doing all the legwork and then not pointing you guys towards the best value bookmaker to place your bets with!
You won’t see me mention speed figures or pace ratings very much in my write-ups but, rest assured, I give both consideration every time I am trying to predict which horses might run well in any particular race. Put simply, I’m interested in fast horses so use the Racing Post Topspeed speed figures to help tell me which horses are consistently fastest in the line-up. I also follow Lawrence Taylor’s Speed Ratings column on At The Races as it highlights the four fastest horses in many daily races in an easy to use tabular format with his additional comments.I use pace ratings to help me forecast how a race might pan out so you might see me say something like, “I expect the selection to give it a good go from the front” or “expect my selection to be running-on when others have cried enough”.
I hope this piece at least helped a little guys bearing in mind the idea behind all the “Educational” articles is to gradually increase your general horse racing knowledge over time. My hope is, when there is a full body of work on here, it will all come together, make sense, and help make you more successful punters.
Hi, I’m 56 and have been tipping profitably year after year since 2012. I created this "ethical" website to help punters like you make a little extra on your bets. My approach focuses on finding and highlighting each-way value, then guiding you to the bookmakers offering the best prices or paying extra places on the race.
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