Hi guys, this is an example of a winning Placepot that was posted to punters supporting me on my Patreon page on the 14th of July 2021.
JJ hit very good 12/1 & 11/2 winners, which many punters had also backed as singles, and you can see all the selections and the advised bet in the picture below. It paid £41.52 for a £2.40 stake and lots of punters made much more because £2.40 was just an example of what you could wage so they increased their bet to suit their own staking level:
I studied the 6 races in the Yarmouth Placepot in detail before giving Patrons the following analysis:
5.00 – This is a highly competitive Class 5 handicap with several unexposed possible improvers among the nine 3-year-old runners.
Natural Colour (100/30) – I’m very much with Natural Colour in this as I’m convinced she was a non-trier on her last start in a bid to get her a lower initial handicap mark. It worked! She ran to an RPR of 78 and got in here off a debut handicap mark of 73. If you get a chance to watch the race back, you will see her jockey deliberately not trying to get past a horse inside the last half furlong when, IMO, he easily could have. She then ran on to finish 3.5 lengths 4th of 12 mixing it with some nice types. The 1st, 2nd, 3rd, & 5th were the right horses to be up there in that they were the 9/4 Favourite, 3/1, 3/1, & 5/2. The form looks very solid, Natural Colour looked a smart prospect, Sean Kirrane takes a useful 5lb off her back, she is bred to be suited by this step up from 8.5f to 10f, she shaped like she would stay 1m2f, and I think this 72,000 GNS purchase will be good enough to take this on her handicap debut for the In form Saeed Bin Suroor yard (Last 14 days: 3-18, 17%).
The Thunderer (13/2) – Was 2nd of 8 off this mark over this 1m2f on today’s Good to Firm two starts back and could go well under these more suitable conditions after being stretched by 1m4f last time. Jack Mitchell is a good first-time booking and he could have more to offer on his third start of the season and just his third run for the Chris Wall yard.
RESULT: The Thunderer won and Natural Colour finished 3rd
5.30 – This is an 8-runner Maiden Stakes for once or twice raced 2 year olds open to plenty of improvement so is a fairly unappealing betting medium.
When I looked at this in the early hours of the morning Sassy Rascal was 6/4 and I was keen on her. However, she has since drifted out to 2/1 with the bookmakers and 9/4 on Betfair Exchange which tempers enthusiasm a little. She cost £62,000 at the Breeze-ups back in April and this George Boughey filly was expected to win on her debut over this trip at Bath 3 weeks ago where she was heavily backed and sent off 13/8 Favourite. She then missed the break losing about 4 lengths at the start which is difficult to get away with over 5f. Jockey, Mark Crehan, then proceeded to try to barge his way through before being forced to wait for a gap and chasing home the winner who got first run on her. She finished a very respectable 2.25 lengths 2nd of 9 and would have been closer if breaking on terms and having a clear run. Jamie Spencer is booked this time and I expect her to be hard to beat. Baileys Liberty (7/2) sets the standard but is also on the drift. She took a step forward on her third start when she was 0.75 lengths 2nd of 10 over this trip at Ripon 4 weeks ago and looks set to go well again with Ben Curtis a good first-time booking. However, she faces a very different, much flatter, track here than she did last time. The two coming in for each way support are Josie’s Kid (5/1) and Swayze (11/1). Josie’s Kid finished 2.5 lengths 2nd of 12 over this trip on Soft at Lingfield 16 days ago. She cost £30,000 at the Breeze-ups in April and was sent off at only 5/1 in that. She too can continue to improve and I can see why the support is coming for her. Swayze, on the other hand, didn’t show too much on debut when finishing 6.75 lengths 8th of 10 on debut at Nottingham just 9 days ago. However, he has steadily been supported in from 16/1 to 11/1 so this 50,000 GNS purchase must be expected to come on for the run.
Unappealing, as I said, as any of them could improve by as much as 20lb but from what I saw on her debut Sassy Rascal (2/1) has to be my tentative choice. Those of you looking for something at an each way price in an 8-runner race may want to consider Swayze at 11/1.
RESULT: Swayze won and Sassy Rascal finished 2nd
6.05 – Not too much of interest to report in this 6-runner 7f Maiden Stakes which is highly likely to end up a match between the two at the head of the market. They are El Picaro (9/10) and Bake (6/4). There doesn’t appear to be too much to separate them on what they have achieved on the track other than El Picaro having a race-fitness edge with Bake coming back from a 10-month break. El Picaro was a good 1.25 length 2nd of 13 over this trip on today’s Good to Firm when last seen at Wetherby 36 days ago only gong down to a well-backed newcomer. The 5th has ran well to be 2nd of 11 on his handicap debut since. El Picaro is likely to give it a good go from the front. Bake was a good 5.75 lengths 3rd of 10 on his debut over this trip at Sandown last August. The 1st & 2nd, who he met running off level weights, have gone on to be officially rated 109 & 104 respectively. That form looks good in the context of this race so, if ready to fire after his break/having been gelded, he could easily win under first-time booking Tom Marquand. There is nothing to suggest either of the other two with form or the two newcomers will be good enough to get involved but this is weak looking so market confidence closer to race time could be significant and should be heeded.
Bake is the tentative selection as I can possibly just see El Picaro setting this up for him.
RESULT: Bake won
6.35 – This is a 7-runner Class 4 handicap that is being contested by some of the best “lady” jockeys in the business. The Favourite is Dashing Dick (11/4) who is a 13-race Maiden though there doesn’t appear to be much wrong with his attitude as he showed when fighting back to only go down by a neck to the Favourite over this trip on today’s Good to Firm at Newmarket 19 days ago. He has gone up 2lb but has the excellent Laura Pearson taking a useful 5lb off his back. He is likely to not be far away. Shamfizz (4/1) was a surprise 33/1 winner over C&D on today’s Good to Firm on her seasonal debut 5 weeks ago. I’m taking her on here because I am not sure how reliable that form is with it being a weak looking Maiden Fillies’ Stakes and those drawn high filling the first 5 places. She may struggle to reproduce the effort off an opening handicap mark of 73. Super Over (4/1) is the possible “pace” angle as he will want to lead and he could be suited by this drop back to the “bare” 7f after not getting home over 7.5f last time. However, I think he is more likely to set this up for a closer. That closer could be Noble Patron (4/1) who is making his handicap debut off a workable looking mark of 79. He has also shaped a few times over 8.5f like he could be suited by this step back to 7f. He has form on Good to Firm and Megan Nicholls is a top notch first-time booking.
So, it’s another tough little race where I don’t think any of the remaining 3 outsiders will be good enough. I am quite keen on the chances of Noble Patron who is unexposed, will be fit on his fifth start of the season, and could be well-suited by today’s drop back in trip. Dashing Dick certainly isn’t out of it and looks most likely to follow him home.
RESULT: Dashing Dick won and Noble Patron finished 3rd
7.05 – A tight little 5-runner Class 3 handicap where I think Emperor Spirit (11/8) has a Favourite’s chance. This John & Thady Gosden 3 year old colt showed plenty of speed at Ripon two starts back where he was leading after 6f before getting reeled in late on over the mile trip. I think he will be suited by this first-time try at 6f and, completely unexposed, will have too much for his rivals.
RESULT: Emperor Spirit finished 2nd
7.35 – You can see from the Placepot bet I placed and posted on here I have opted for Oakenshield & Lincoln Red against the field in this. Oakenshield has steadily dropped 31lb down the weights since June 2020 and he showed in a seller at Leicester two starts back he might be ready to take advantage of his falling mark as he only went down by a 1.25 lengths over this trip on today’s Good to Firm to a horse he was giving 16lb to. That winner has ran well/gone close twice since back in handicaps off a 6lb higher mark. Oakenshield has to be forgiven a poor run last time but the betting would suggest connections are expecting a big run with Hollie Doyle back on board as he has been heavily backed in from 11/1 on Betfair Exchange last night to 4/1 clear second Favourite. The Favourite is Lincoln Red (3/1) who is a C&D winner off a 3lb higher mark and only went down by a nose over C&D off 2lb lower 5 weeks ago. He has a Favourite’s chance and is likely to be involved at the business end. At bigger each way prices, I thought the 7 year old gelding At Your Service (14/1) was semi-interesting returned here off a career low mark. He won a handicap over C&D 3 year ago off 6lb higher than today before finishing 0.75 lengths 2nd of 9 off 6lb higher 6 weeks later. He hasn’t ran here since but could easily go well returned here off what looks a good mark.
RESULT: Oakenshield won and Lincoln Red finished 4th
This was an exceptional set of results to get 4 winners and 3 placed from just 8 selections but it is fairly typical of the quality analysis you will receive if you become a supporter on Patron. So, if you like what you see please sign up now and Become a Patron!
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