Hi guys, the chances of the horses at the front end of the betting market in the Randox Grand National have been well advertised and written about and anyone can tip Favourite Cloth Cap so I’ve decided to do something a little different by concentrating on those outsiders, at the other end of the market, who I think could go well today.
The first of them is MINELLACELEBRATION at a widely available 100/1. This horse has been flagged up by the Racing Post Sweetspots column who say, “Katy Price and Ben Poste combine for an impressive 38 per cent strike-rate at Aintree and Minellacelebration can go well at a price”. He has a good record over the conventional fences here, won by 14 lengths over the Mildmay course last October, appears versatile ground wise having won on every underfoot condition from Good to Firm right through to Heavy, he has had a wind operation since being “not disgraced” on his latest start, and while he hasn’t been contested over further than 3m2f he has stamina in his pedigree.
I think Irish trained horses need to be given serious consideration given there recent form at Cheltenham and the J P McManus owned THE LONG MILE (80/1) caught my eye running on when stepped up to 3m1f at Fairyhouse six weeks ago. He finished behind 7.75 lengths behind the re-opposing Acapella Bourgeois and 3 lengths behind Burrows Saint and is 6lb & 9lb better off with them respectively. I have doubts about him staying 4m2f and he is only 7 years old but he won’t lack for fitness on his fifth start since November and if he does stay he could place.
TALKISCHEAP (50/1) impressively won a big-race at Sandown (3m5f, good) by 10 lengths in April 2019 off 10lb lower and while he hasn’t been nearly as good since he is a nice age on key trends being a 9 year old. He could be well-suited by today’s test of stamina while the better ground will also be in his favour.
The Willie Mullins trained 11 year old ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (20/1) won well over 3m1.5f at Fairyhouse six weeks ago arguably putting in a career best performance when beating the re-opposing Burrows Saint by 4.75 lengths. He finished 3rd in the Irish National over 3m5f back in April 2019 and appears versatile ground wise having won on Good to Heavy. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this Irish raider go well.
MISTER MALARKY (20/1) appeared to have been helped by wind surgery when 4 lengths 3rd of 17 at Kempton 6 weeks ago and he has long given me the impression he could be suited by this kind of marathon trip. He ran well over the Mildmay course here to finish 2nd of 18 over 3m1f back in April 2019, he has the assistance of John Joe O’Neill junior in the saddle, he should be fully race-fit on his sixth start of the season, 8 years of age is ideal on the key trends as the type to do well, and a new headgear combination could spark some improvement.
I think all of these could go well at a price and wouldn’t put you off a small each way bet on any of them but I don’t want to be tipping 5 selections in any race so the two I think could go best are ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS and TALKISCHEAP. You should always seek out place offers guys but especially in a 40-runner handicap like the Grand National where William Hill and BET365 are only paying 5 places while most firms are paying the first 6 horses home and Boylesports are the only bookmaker I’m aware of who are paying 7 places. Good luck!
Jibber Jabber
P.S. Just a reminder that while I suggest bookies to bet with because they have the best price available or are offering to pay extra places in a race these are purely for your benefit and I receive absolutely nothing from them. I AM NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY BOOKMAKERS!
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