Hi guys, this is a fairly standard low Grade Class 5 Tuesday night 10-runner handicap at Wolverhampton with most of the runners looking fairly exposed apart from New Force (8/1) who has only ran 3-times to date.

This 4 year old gelding was sold a couple of times as a yearling back in 2019 for 50,000 GNS & 105,000 GNS before being picked up last month for his current owners for 27,000 GNS and he impressed me when winning with a bit in hand over C&D back in December. On that occasion, he was dropped in from a similar draw in stall 8 (stall 9 here) and travelled well throughout before coming with his run in the straight to win with a little in hand by 1.25 lengths.

The 2nd & 3rd in the race haven’t ran since but the 4th & 5th both won next time out and are officially rated 72 & 77 respectively. New Force has been given an initial handicap mark of 77 and having beaten the 5th, Obsidian Knight (now rated 77), by 6.75 lengths giving him 3lb he may well be under-rated by it. The selection certainly gave me the impression he would go on with normal improvement to rate higher than a Class 5 handicapper and his breeding, being a half brother to Umneyati & Tonkinese (rated 96 & 99 respectively at their best), would suggest he may well do.

The Favourite is Bakersboy (3/1) a 13-race maiden who has dropped to a good mark and was 2nd of 11 to a subsequent winner over C&D last time. He can go close again but might just be hard to win with so will hopefully prove vulnerable.

My concerns are that New Force, while he did it well enough last time, shaped like he would get further than this 9.5f trip and he has a longer than ideal 89-day break to overcome. However, I think he could prove good enough to win provided his new trainer Mark Loughnane has him ready to fire.

BET365 are offering an industry best price of 8/1 for 3 places but their “Each Way Extra” odds of 15/2 for 4 places might be the way to go to give us extra place insurance. Skybet are only offering 7/1 but are paying 4 places on the race and this too looks perfectly acceptable. Good luck!

Jibber Jabber

P.S. Just a reminder that while I suggest bookies to bet with because they have the best price available or are offering to pay extra places on a race these are purely for your benefit and I receive absolutely nothing from them. I’M NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY BOOKMAKERS!

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