COUNT PALATINE (NAP) – 2.30pm ASCOT
1 POINT EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT THE 40/1 AVAILABLE WITH BET365 WHO ARE PAYING 4 PLACES
Hi guys, I like the current 40/1 available for Count Palatine in the Chesham Stakes (Listed Race), which jumps off at 2.30pm on Saturday, with BET365 who are are offering an extra place on the race paying the first 4 home as opposed to the first 3.
He caught my eye running-on late after being out-paced early on his debut 26 days ago when finishing 3.5 lengths 5th of 12 over 6f at Windsor on similar Good to Firm ground which is forecast for Ascot tomorrow. He shaped as if he will relish tomorrow’s extra furlong (suits on pedigree) and this well-bred half-brother to 10-winners, 3 of them in Group races, is likely to improve appreciably for the experience. Also, the race is working out particularly well with both the 3rd & 4th winning very easily on their next starts and the 2nd placed horse, Inquisitively, finishing an excellent 3.75 lengths 3rd of 23 in the 5f Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) at Royal Ascot two days ago.
The winner of the race was Chief Mankato and, while he hasn’t ran since, I think it significant that he was seriously heavily backed on Betfair Exchange from as high as 49/1 in to as low as 12/1 for the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot on Tuesday past before becoming upset in the stalls and being withdrawn from the race.
My concerns are that the selection doesn’t come from one of the very top yards (trainer is Brian Meehan) and this is a typically hugely competitive 17-runner Royal Ascot race chock-full of mostly once-raced 2-year-olds who are open to 20lbs-30lbs improvement from their first to their second start. These races can often throw up shock results as you may have noticed with 150/1 shot Valiant Force winning the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes for 2-year-olds at Ascot yesterday. Also, the selection only ran to a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 74 on debut while the winner of this race will highly likely have to run to a RPR of 100 plus (the performances of the last 10 winners of the race all achieved RPR’s between 100 – 114) so, just like all of the entrants, he will need to improve significantly to be involved in the finish. I think this is possible and, all things considered, he simply has to be backed each way at the current 40/1 on offer. He is generally available at 28/1 and still looks worth a punt for 4 places at that price.
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