PUNCTUATION – 2.25pm YORK

0.5 PTS EACH WAY AT THE 33/1 AVAILABLE WITH SKYBET & WILLIAM HILL WHO ARE BOTH PAYING 5 PLACES

I like the chances of Andrew Balding’s two runners in this competitive looking 14-runner handicap but the selection is Punctuation who would be best backed with SKYBET or William Hill who are offering the generally available 33/1 but are paying the first 5 home while most other bookmakers are only paying 3 or 4 places. Taking extra place insurance, particularly in big field races like this, is absolutely vital as it will make a huge difference to your long-term profits.

The 3 year old colt Punctuation has been in my tracker since February when he won his maiden by an impressive 11 lengths over 1m4f at Kempton and, after under-performing this season, I’m convinced we haven’t seen the best of him yet as he had excuses in all his 4 runs since June (First run – unfit, rise in grade, too fast a surface, and too short a trip. Second run – Highly tried raised to Group 2 level and was given an ill-judged ride by Silvestre De Souza off all people going off much too fast before stopping quickly in the straight. Third run – He was a bit short of room 3f out getting involved in some scrimmaging and stopped in his run at a crucial stage of the race before getting out-paced then finishing a running on third beaten by two much better handicapped rivals. He also lost his left-fore shoe. Forth run – He stumbled badly leaving the stalls then was poorly positioned throughout with him being behind horses when the winner started his run for home).

The selection is a big, strong, strapping, galloping type with an exaggerated knee action who should be well-suited by the recent rain at the track and the long run-in at York as it takes him quite a while to get his massive frame into top gear. His only win to date came in a similar big field 14-runner race to today and his four small field runs (5 to 9 entrants) this season haven’t really suited with them all being run at too slow a pace but he looks sure to get a strong gallop and pace to aim at today. He will also be fully fit on his fifth start of the season, the Andrew Balding yard is in form (Last 14 days: 11-62, 18%), and it’s really good that he has been dropped a couple of pounds while his RPR’s (Racing Post Ratings) have been mildly progressive this season (68, 88, 90, 91) despite none of the races going his way.

He remains capable of better and, sent off at 7/2 last time, he is surely over-priced here at 33/1 (I’ve backed him at a still available 59/1 on Betfair Exchange) with some firms paying the first 5 horses home. He’s got the ability to win off his current mark of 87 and, given a more positive ride today, under ideal conditions, with him sure to be running on strongly when others have cried enough (provided he gets a clear run in the home straight) I can see him going close.

I didn’t want to tip two horses in the race but I wouldn’t put anyone off an each way bet on Andrew Balding’s other runner, Coltrane, at 14/1. He is a progressive, unexposed, 3 year old colt who won going away on his first try at this trip last time. He will also be suited by the recent rain and has Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Good luck!

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