SOTO SIZZLER (NAP) – 3.55pm EPSOM

2 PTS WIN BET ADVISED AT THE 9/2 AVAILABLE WITH WILLIAM HILL

Hi guys, I’ve Napped Tracker horse Soto Sizzler because I think he has a great winning chance against today’s rivals and looks over-priced at the early 9/2 available with William Hill. If you don’t yet have an account with them I suggest you open one so you can take advantage of these type of early value odds selections in future as they are the only bookmaker I am aware of who price-up races this far in advance.

Soto Sizzler went in the Tracker 24 days ago after finishing a good 8.75 lengths 4th of 9 off a 2lb higher mark than today over 1m3f in the Class 2 (0-105) Rosebery Handicap at Kempton on the All-Weather. On that occasion, this 6 year old gelding was 20/1 coming back from an extended 554 day break making his debut for the in form David Menuisier yard (Last 14 days: 2-9, 22%) but showed he retained plenty of ability only tiring and getting out-paced late on. He also got beat by the “right” horses in the smart Al Zaraqaan (Evens) and Almighwar (7/2) who were the first and second Favourites. The 2nd, Almighwar, franked the form just 3 days ago when going down by a neck off 5lb higher in a similar Class 2 race on turf with the 1st & 2nd pulling 6.25 lengths clear of the 3rd.

The selection is a dual C&D winner (and the only horse in the field to have ran at Epsom before which is an idiosyncratic track where experience really helps) who very easily won this Class 3 (0-95) handicap race by 3.25 lengths last time it was ran in 2019 in a fast time off a 9lb lower mark before going on to win a Class 2 (0-105) race 38 days later off 5lb higher. So, how can we be confident he can win it again this year off a 9lb higher mark carrying top-weight? Well, it was much more competitive as there was 12-runners taking part when he did win it, 7 of them had course form, and 5 of them were course winners. Plus, there are doubts about the 4 rivals he faces here.

Current Favourite, Valyrian Steel (5/2), a 4 year old colt trained by Roger Varian cost €600,000 as a yearling and won on his first two starts last year (the form hasn’t worked out) before finishing 3.75 lengths 4th of 14 on his handicap debut when last seen at York last October. That was over 1m2.5f on Soft and while he has been dropped 2lb, might benefit for the return to better ground (currently officially Good with dry sunny weather forecast), and is receiving 5lb from the selection, he didn’t appear to be crying out for this step up to 1m4f (doesn’t suit on breeding) and will have to have Wintered well to win this coming back from a 192 day break.

Second Favourite, Group One Power (11/4), is a 4 year old Andrew Balding trained gelding who ran well in a big-field Class 2 handicap on Good ground at Ascot over this trip last June when only 1.5 lengths 4th of 17 to subsequent winner Hukum. Running off only 2lb higher and in receipt of 10lb from the selection he looks the main danger. However, he has a 284-day break to overcome so his fitness has to be taken on trust and has never ran at Epsom.

Amazing Red had dropped a stone in the weights before winning on his seasonal debut coming back from a 141 day break at Leicester 11 days ago. That was in a slightly easier grade than this (0-90) and he beat a 1/4 Favourite by a nose in the process but it was only a 4-runner race run in a slow time at a moderate pace with the Racing Post assessing the form as “muddling”. He had been in very poor form in all 9 runs the season before that and up 4lb here in receipt of only a pound from the selection I doubt if he’ll be good enough to follow up with this race coming quite soon only 11 days later.

The outsider in this tight betting contest is Galahad Threepwood (5/1) has been running well on the All-Weather winning twice in January and February before finishing 3rd & 2nd when Favourite the last twice. However, he has risen 15lb in the weights and only ran to a RPR of 57 on his only other turf run to date. He runs off a mark of 88 here and faces the undulations of Epsom for the first time so he will be a surprise winner in my opinion in receipt of only 4lb from Soto Sizzler.

Soto Sizzler is 2-2 at the track both over C&D, the first-time booking of William Buick is eye-catching, his yard are in form, he has a fitness edge over his two rivals at the head of the market, he has won on the ground, he shaped on his return like he retains all of his ability, he has been dropped 2lb, and the form of his races against better more experienced horses than these has been working out. He was also progressive prior to his 554 day break so may yet have even more to offer as a 6 year old.

I hope I have got this right guys. Good luck!

Jibber Jabber

P.S. Just a reminder that while I suggest bookies to bet with because they have the best price available or are offering to pay extra places in a race these are purely for your benefit and I receive absolutely nothing from them. I AM NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY BOOKMAKERS!

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