CAYIRLI – 1.15pm GOODWOOD
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 28/1 AVAILABLE WITH BET VICTOR AND BET365
Hi guys, as many of you will know, I put this one out around 9.40pm in the hope you would be able to take advantage of the early 28/1 which I thought looked generous and could see was soon going to disappear. I’m happy to report, from the betting slips and comments I saw on Twitter, a number of you managed to get on at that price. Great start!
Here’s a quick word on the reasons why the price shortens across the board so fast when I publish a selection. Firstly, I’m actively searching for what I call “outstanding value bets”. These are horses which I have deduced, from analysing all the information available to me, have been priced up at the “wrong” odds by the bookmakers. The people who set the initial odds are only human so, it’s great for us, this happens with some horses every single day. However, the problem is I’m not the only person out there looking for the value, so, the odds of my selection Cayirli were going to shorten by tomorrow morning anyway once other tipsters came to the same conclusion as me and spread the word. I’ve just sped the process along by notifying 85,000 punters on Twitter, OLBG, Facebook, and by email I think the odds are on the high side.
So, what’s all the fuss about with this one? You’ll have noticed I said above, “analysing all the information available to me” and I intend to go in to more detail on this by writing an article or articles shortly explaining for you guys where, what, and how exactly I get the information I use to choose my selections and how I go about doing that. In this instance, Cayirli was in my tracker with some notes so I was having a look at him and the first thing that jumped off the screen was the price. He had gone off at 2/1, 9/1, 7/1, 12/1, and 16/1 in his last 5 races which were all run in higher Classes to today off higher marks so I didn’t see how or why he should be 28/1 here. Besides this, he had gone in the notebook after Ken Pitterson (the best paddock judge about) said before his most recent race at Kempton that he was looking fit and raring to go. He had also been nibbled at in the betting and, after finishing down the field, my tracker notes read “he was travelling well and about to come with his run 2f out when he ran in to the back of horses, lost all momentum, and was eased”.
He has steadily dropped 10lb down the weights to a career low mark of 87 which is 1lb below his last winning mark. That win came over this trip at Kempton in February 2019 in a higher Class than today and he was described as having won “readily” by 2 lengths. Usually contested at Class 2 level he drops in to a Class 4 race for the first time today and he may improve for a wind op he had since he last ran (Dec 2019).
I have no worries about him staying 2 miles on Heavy either as he has stayed 2m5.5f on Good to Soft and has finished 2nd 3-times when “Soft” has been in the Going description. He has also ran well twice here and won twice when fresh having won on his career debut and also coming back from a 537 day break in April 2018. I then compared his form against that of each of his rivals at today’s weights and concluded if he runs to approximately an RPR of 95 he could win and he has ran to 94 plus 10-times in his career.
I know he’s 8 years old now but, all things considered, he looks well-worth an each way bet at the price at this level in this 9-runner race. The one thing I’d really like you guys to take away from this is my job is done if I consistently advise selections which in reality have a much better chance of winning than the odds I tip them at as, mathematically, you can’t fail to make a long-term profit if you’re able to do this. Currently, we’re looking good as more than 90% of my selections go off at shorter odds than they were tipped at with many halving in price or even more. Good luck!
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