CONTINGENCY FEE (NAP) – 4.50 SOUTHWELL.
WIN BET ADVISED AT 11/1 (with BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook, & Paddy Power).
Contingency Fee looks over-priced at the current 11/1 on offer as he is a dual C&D winner with his form figures here reading 23156143 (2-8, 25% Strike Rate) and his Strike Rate over this 1m4f trip being an excellent 29% (4-14). I’ve studied the race in detail, watching several race replays, and came to the conclusion he a has a decent chance at the weights on his C&D win in a similar race to this last November.
On that occasion, he was able to gain an easy lead dominating a small field very much like this to win comfortably by 5 lengths from the Favourite and he did it in a time 2 seconds faster than today’s Favourite, Mukha Magic, won over C&D 8 days ago while carrying 1lb more than he was last week. So, only 2lb higher today (he had much more than that in hand when winning here last November) in receipt of 5lb from Mukha Magic it makes good sense that he has a chance of beating him providing he can get to the lead in the first few furlongs and dictate the race from the front.
This 5 year old gelding is a tough horse to pass when getting into a galloping rhythm and this track very much suits his running style. Plus his trainer, Phil McEntee, has made a better than usual start to the season (8-56, 14% Strike Rate) having had 2 winners in the past fortnight with most of his horses running well. He is my 11/1 Nap and, while there are definitely dangers and his chance rests on being able to dominate, he looks the one to be on at the prices.