Hi guys, here are my thoughts on a few races at York this afternoon. This is analysis I carried out for a Placepot on my Patreon Page where I’m also giving punters early access to tips, analysis of races, Eyecatchers, Ante Post suggestions, articles on how I choose my selections, etc, etc. It may help you with your betting choices today. Good luck!
2.10 – A poor turnout for this Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes with only 5-runners but it still looks very competitive with all 5 holding winning chances. I’ve chosen Chamade (6/1) as my main selection as she finished last year on the up fairly comfortably winning a Listed race at Doncaster around this trip under a front-running ride. She goes well fresh and might get an easy lead in this small field so could be hard to peg back. The 4th in that Listed race, Moonlight In Paris, has franked the form by winning twice since and is now rated 12lb higher. Freyja was disappointing at this level last time so I’m hoping she is found out again and Cabaletta, who the Racing Post are tipping, will hopefully need the run coming back from a 208-day break and has been well-beaten 3-times when “Soft” was in the Going description but did win on Heavy on her debut. It was a toss-up for my second pick between the Favourite, Queen Power (7/4), and Irish raider Silence Please. Queen Power has the benefit of a run and consistently good form but has been beaten in her last 7 and probably wants better ground than she will face today. So, I have gone for the potential of Silence Please who finished 4th in the Group 1 German Oaks then finished 2nd of 12 in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on her last start of the season. After only 6 runs she is still open to further improvement so could go close if ready to fire after an 8-month break.
2.40 – This is a competitive looking 14-runner Class 2 handicap where several have winning chances. The consistent Brunch (4/1) is all the rage with the tipsters (but not much value at the price) and rightly so I think being 2-2 at the track including over C&D, having handicap form figures of 41122, having finished a very good 1.5 lengths 2ndof 18 in the Lincoln on his seasonal debut 47-days ago with the form working out very well, appearing to be suited by big fields, and having form on Good to Soft. He has to be included as a big run is expected from a pretty good draw in stall 6. Of the others, I like C&D winner Hartswood (7/1), Kynren (17/2), Artictic Rifles (9/1), and Mostawaa (16/1). I have gone for Mostawaa as second choice as I think he might just provide some value at 16’s from a good draw in stall 4 with Silvestre De Souza booked and his record on him being a 1st& a 3rd. Mostawaa has only gone down by 0.75 lengths and half a length in two competitive handicaps this season, he is versatile ground wise, and I see no reason why he can’t go well in an open race.
3.10 – I don’t like this 10-runner Group 2 Dante Stakes from a Placepot perspective at all guys because it is so open in my opinion I even give winning chances to the two 33/1 shots Pythagoras and Aidan O’Brien’s Roman Empire. Fun E/W stakes on both perhaps? The only two I ruled out were Megallan (12/1) who looks the Gosden’s second string on jockey bookings and Belloccio (50/1) who I doubt is good enough to take this. That leaves us 8 with winning chances. High Definition (7/4), trained by Aidan O’Brien, is the right Favourite being unbeaten in two starts and having already won a Group 2. However, he couldn’t run in a Derby trial last week because his bloods weren’t right so with that doubt about his 100% well-being he might be worth taking on. So, I’ve gone for Charlie Appleby’s 200,000 GNS purchase, Hurricane Lane (13/2), who is also unbeaten and has the benefit of a run where he won a good Condition Stakes race around this trip at Newbury 27 days ago. The 4th placed horse franked the form by winning next time out and the trainer reports, “We’re pleased with how he’s coming into this race off the back of a nice win on his seasonal return.” I have made Uncle Bryn (11/1) my second c oice but it could honestly have been any one of 7. I went for him because he is a John Gosden horse been ridden by Frankie Dettori who I think retains potential after he under-performed as 11/10 Favourite when being 3rd of 8 in a Derby trial at Epsom 23 days ago. He was reportedly a “bit fresh” and “has improved at home since.” I also think he may be better suited by this track than the undulations of Epsom.
3.40 – I studied the form of this 8-runner Listed race for about an hour or so comparing horses against each other at the weights, watching lots of race replays, etc. I’ve mainly been interested in First Company (12/1) who made serious improvement in the latter half of last season after running to RPR’s of just 36 & 58 on her first two starts before going on to be highly tried finishing behind the re-opposing Winter Power twice at odds of 250/1 and 50/1 and running to a best RPR of 97. On both those occasions she was giving Winter Power 5lb & 3lb and they meet on level terms here. She went down by 1.25 lengths in their first meeting and by 6.25 lengths on their second perhaps not being suited by having to race up the middle of the track in a Group 3 race at Newmarket last October. She ran very well on her seasonal debut just 8 days ago in a Class 2 handicap at Chester finishing a clear 0.75 lengths 2nd of 8 over this trip on Good to Soft giving 9lb to the well-backed 13/8 Favourite Showalong. I don’t think there is enough here to tip her but I think she is over-priced at 12/1 and will run a big race perhaps finishing 2nd to 5th. I’m also not saying she can or will beat Winter Power who is returning from a 216-day break but with the benefit of last weeks run, which I thought she could come on for, where she ran to a career best RPR of 98, she could go close with further improvement. She will be well suited by the easy underfoot conditions at the track tomorrow as she “has been waiting for some rain” so I’m guessing she is worth a small each way bet at the price (let’s hope there are no non-runners in this 8-runner race) or a “Place” bet (Betfair Exchange regularly offers the best odds but there is usually little liquidity in these markets until much closer to race time) to finish 3rd or 4th. You will probably get 2/1-5/2 for her to place in the first three and 6/4 would be pretty decent for her to place in the first 4 home.
4.15 – This is a 13-runner Class 2 Maiden Stakes for 2 year olds where only 4 of those taking part have ever had a run so there’s not too much form to go on and it doesn’t make a very appealing betting medium. There are a few expensive purchases amongst them with several of the top yards being represented but the betting would suggest there isn’t too much strength in depth among the newcomers. I’ve been watching the market for this race since it opened yesterday afternoon and the early and steady support since, for Roger Varian’s 85,000 GNS newcomer Rizg (4/1) has caught my eye. The yard have a 29% strike rate with 2 year olds at the track in the past 5 years and with Hollie Doyle booked on debut it looks like connections are expecting a good run. I thought Edison Kavani (40/1) was possibly over-priced with him a beaten Favourite last time and him having the fitness and experience benefit of 2 runs under his belt. He has been nibbled at at big prices so may outrun his odds if the step up to 6f helps. I have also found bits and pieces of money coming for the Kevin Ryan newcomer Dark Moon Rising (25/1) interesting. The trainer often runs his best 2 year olds here and won the last running of this in 2019. He might do something well-drawn in stall 1. However, I went for Secret Strength (9/2) as my second choice with an all-important run under his belt where he finished 2nd of 5 over 5f at Newmarket just 11 days ago. He cost 155,000 GNS and, having looked inexperienced on debut, he is open to any amount of improvement stepped up to 6f today. Anything could happen in this unappealing betting medium so I’m just hoping one of these two can place for us.
Jibber Jabber
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