Hi guys, I’ve made this Placepot available to everyone on Twitter as well in an attempt to drum up more support for what I am trying to do on Patreon and to let them see the type of race analysis they are missing. You can follow along and do the Placepot or use the analysis of the races to help with today’s betting choices.
For those who don’t know, I have been chronically ill with Myalgic Encephalomyelitis since 2012 and my health is gradually deteriorating year on year. I am 51 now with an ailment which on average takes 20 years off your life so I have seriously started to think about my own mortality and leaving some kind of legacy. I would love that legacy to be the ShrewdPunters.com website developed and enhanced to give you many more of the tools and resources I use to help choose my winning selections. I have come to realise recently my health is at the stage where I need help to do this so I would like to, with the assistance of you my most loyal supporters, try to raise the funds to put a small team of people in place going forward as this will accelerate the process of me achieving my not too lofty goals and ambitions.
RACE ANALYSIS
1.10 – This first race is a 9-runner Maiden Stakes full of nicely bred, expensive, unraced 2 year olds with no form to go on. So, all you can do is look which horses come from top yards, eye-catching jockey bookings, how their Sire’s & Dam’s progeny perform as 2 year olds and on their debuts, and most importantly where the money is going. Unfortunately, on this occasion, the market isn’t being very informative with very little money coming for anything. So, I have opted for Object (5/1) who has been steady in the betting. She is from the Martyn Meade yard who are 5-15 with 2 year olds here since the start of 2018 which gives us cause for optimism that she can go well on her debut. She also cost 65,000 GNS and is closely related to a couple of highly rated 2 year old winners. As insurance, I have picked Gisburn (8/1) who looks good on paper also being related to a couple of 2 year old winners. I have deliberately gone against the two at the head of the market hoping this race can throw up a surprise and help the Placepot payout.
1.40 – This is a competitive 8-runner Class 2 handicap where 4 of the horses come in to it on the back of a win. The best three in this look like King’s Lynn (11/4), Dirty Rascal (9/2), and Came From The Dark (4/1), Dirty Rascal is from the in form George Boughey yard (Last 14 days: 5-17, 29%) and has won the last twice including when bolting up by 5 lengths to produce a career best over 7f at Leicester 7 days ago. He is coming in for strong support, he has a fitness advantage, there could be more to come from him, he is a course winner, he runs off joint bottom weight, and he also has the excellent Laura Pearson taking 5lb off. He has to be included despite carrying a 10lb penalty, stepping up from a Class 4 to a Class 2 handicap, and dropping back to 5f for the first time on his 27th start. I’m taking on Favourite King’s Lynn (11/4) even though he has a progressive profile and was only a neck 2nd of 12 over 6f in a similar Class 2 to this when last seen in October. The 1st & 3rd have both won since and are now rated 10lb & 8lb higher respectively. However, he got going late that day so the drop back to 5f for the first time may not suit and he could just need this first run in 175 days while he may prefer a softer surface. So, my second selection is Came From The Dark who was giving 6lb & 9lb to the 1st & 2nd when a head 3rd of 13 in the Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap at Musselburgh 13 days ago. The first 3 pulled 3 lengths clear of the 4th, he could have won with a clearer straighter run, that was a career best, he looks a real 5f sprinter, he is entitled to strip fitter as he was coming back from a 161-day break, and this is his second run since both a gelding and a wind operation so there could be more to come. Garrus (11/2) who won a Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton over this trip 27 days ago beating the re-opposing Blue De Vega (28/1) by 0.75 lengths with a bit in hand. I can’t see the 8 year old reversing the placings despite being 3lb off as he was already race-fit while Garrus was having his first start in 575 days. There could be plenty more to come from Garrus in big sprints this year as he won at Listed level and was contested at Group 1 level back in 2019. The Charles Hills yard are in form (Last 14 days: 4-15, 27%), it is his second run from a gelding/wind operation, and 5f on a sound surface suits him well. Mulzim is 0-4 on turf and probably/hopefully high enough in the weights now, Tis Marvellous has been out of form in his last two and looks more exposed than the selections, and Ivatheengine can’t be ruled out but will hopefully need the run and won’t be good enough.
2.15 – I know for Placepot purposes we’d like to get all the Favourites beaten but I have to include Almighwar (9/4) because I don’t fancy the chances of too much at higher prices while he appears to have a good chance of winning and should at least place. He is a John & Thady Gosden trained 4 year old gelding with the benefit of a run over 1m3f at Kempton 20 days ago where he was a running on clear 3 lengths 2nd of 9 to excellent prospect and well-backed Evens Favourite Al Zaraqaan. He has already won twice over 1m4f last Summer and I can see this step up to 16.5 for the first time unlocking further improvement. This 4 year old Dubawi colt is lightly-raced, completely unexposed, entitled to strip fitter and improve for the step up in trip and switch to turf. Of those at bigger prices, I thought Dancing Harry (10/1) could go well stepped up in trip on his return if helped by a gelding operation back in October.
2.50 – This is a 16-runner handicap so, provided we have no non-runners, we have to get one placed in the first 4 home. Sounds easy enough but early season Flat races can throw up plenty of surprises. I would like to have picked something at a big price in this but I don’t fancy anything and think the market has got it right so the Favourite Mithras, who is the only one of these holding any kind of Group entry (the Group 1 Quipco 2000 Guineas), has to be included. He pulled well clear with the 2nd when beating another smart prospect (Movin Time) by a length over a mile at Newcastle on the AW when last seen in November. The form of his C&D 4th of 13 last September is also working out very well with the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, & 8th all having won since. He surely goes close in this Class 2 handicap for the Gosdens if he has aspirations of being competitive in the Guineas. I think Dingle also has to be included with Richard Hannon having won this race 3-times since 2013 showing us he knows what type of a horse it takes to win it. Plus, he looks on a fair mark (86) and is carrying only 8st 10lb here. He beat Recovery Run over a mile at Kempton when last seen in September and that one won next time out before finishing a close up 2nd of 8 in a Group 3 at Newmarket. Dingle had 1lb in hand but Recovery Run is now officially rated 107 making Dingle’s mark of 86 look lenient having only gone up 4lb for the win. I would have preferred a mile for him but hopefully he will cope with the drop back to 7f where he is likely to be running on late.
3.25 – Unfortunately a non-runner has been declared leaving only 7 meaning we need to finish in the first 2 home which won’t be easy with the race packed full of potential, 7 top stables involved, 6 of them holding Group 1 entries, and 6 of them coming back from 6-7 month breaks. We’re going to need luck as I wasn’t able to rule any of them out! I have opted for Hurricane Lane because he looked a smart prospect when comfortably beating a subsequent winner on his only start to date over a mile at in a Class 2 Novice Stakes last October. This Frankel colt (who cost 200,000 GNS as a yearling) is bred to be suited by the step up to 1m2f, the Charlie Appleby yard have made a good start to the season (Last 14 days: 4-19, 21%), and the horse has come in for strong support since yesterday afternoon. I honestly found it hard to separate the rest of them eventually opting for the potential of Hugo Palmer’s Set Point (14/1) who is better bred than some of his rivals to be suited by today’s step up to 1m2f.
4.00 – An awful race to finish with guys being an 11-runner Maiden Fillies’ Stakes where 7 of them have never saw a race course and there is no recent form to go on. The 4/5 Favourite has to be included as she ran to a RPR of 77 when 1.5 lengths 2nd of 7 on her debut over this trip at Newcastle on the AW back in December. The winner, 3rd, & 6th all won next time out so the form looks rock solid. She showed a fair level of ability, she is also trained by the Gosdens (who have won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this), and is their first string in this having the assistance of Frankie Dettori in the saddle for the first time with their other horse a major drifter. She faces a different surface today and several other top stables are represented but this Dubawi filly should be fine on turf and is likely to take all the beating. Would I bet her at 4/5 in a race with so many unknowns? Absolutely not!
Best of luck if you decide to follow along. ?
Jibber Jabber
If you love what I am trying to do here then please help…
What is place pot . I see it says not placed . What do you mean
Hi Sebastian, a Placepot is a type of bet like a Yankee or a Lucky 15. It is a pool bet operated by the Tote, where punters are required to select a placed horse in six consecutive races (usually the first six on the card at any given meeting). Place positions vary depending on number of runners and type of races, but typically we’re trying to get a horse to finish first, second or third in each of the six races. It says “not placed” because the results aren’t in yet. On the Tote website (Tote.co.uk) this changes every time a race runs and the results are in. I hope this helps a little? ??