3.35pm Newmarket on ITV4 6f (July course) BET365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

EXCEPTIONAL – 11/1
SUNSET BREEZE – 8/1

BET BOTH 0.5 PTS EACH WAY ADVISED WITH INDUSTRY BEST PRICES AVAILABLE WITH WILLIAM HILL WHO ARE ALSO PAYING 5 PLACES

Many of you will know I don’t usually tip in big handicaps like this as I prefer to try to make money by specialising on over-priced horses each way at odds of 8/1 and upwards in 8-11 runner races. I do this as it simply makes more sense from a mathematical perspective because you have less horses to beat. Basically, why bet a 10/1 shot in a nearly impossible to figure out, ultra-competitive, 19-runner handicap like this where many have chances when you can tip one at 10/1 in an 8-runner race where you’re able to narrow down the field for various reasons (Eg. the horse is carrying too much weight, isn’t suited by the ground, has been badly out of form, etc, etc, etc) enabling you to rule out 3 or 4 of the runners? With that said, I know you guys want and love a bet in these big meeting, live on ITV, races so I didn’t tip yesterday allowing me to concentrate on studying the Newmarket & York cards for today but, because you normally need luck in these big field handicaps, please don’t go overboard with your stakes or expect too much.

I spent ages on this race scrutinising the form of every horse hoping to find you guys an outsider who could go well but to no avail. If there is one there at bigger prices who can win this I can’t find it! My shortlist was eventually narrowed down to:

Dancin Inthestreet (11/4)
Meraas (4/1)
Sunset Breeze (8/1)
Exceptional (11/1)
Byline (14/1)

I fully expect the winner to come from one of these 5 horses (famous last words) and rate their chances in this order:

Byline cost 140,000gns as a yearling, ran well on his seasonal debut in a smart race, his trainer says he’s “sure he’s come on for that”, he has a decent draw in stall 14, and was a wide-margin winner of 6f Hamilton maiden on today’s Good to Soft around this time last year. My main concern is that he has only had one run so he isn’t as race-fit as some of his rivals. Meraas looks really classy and has won his two starts this year including a Class 2 handicap over 6f on Good at Pontefract 24 days ago. He should go close but I noticed him tiring late on last time (admittedly he had set a strong pace) so just wondered if the stamina sapping 6f here, with easy underfoot conditions today, might find him out under 9 st 2 lb as they come up the hill. I wouldn’t put anyone off the Favourite, Dancin Inthestreet, who has looked really unlucky having found trouble in two high quality 5f races in June and both are working out particularly well. She comfortably beat the re-opposing Lexington Dash over this trip on the AW last year and meets him on 10lb better terms here. She also ran well on the Rowley course on her debut finishing 2nd over 7f so I don’t see the step up to 6f today or the uphill finish being a problem. Off bottom weight, given a clear run, she could easily bolt up off bottom weight (8st 4lb) but represents little value at 11/4 in such a competitive handicap with so many runners open to improvement. I really like the giant Sunset Breeze who has had 3 runs already winning them all and progressing in each of them. He has the size and scope to improve much further this year and his physical strength will help him in today as this 6f will take a bit of getting on this ground. My strongest fancy is Exceptiional because when you’re analysing a race you always try to find a standout piece of form and in this race it looks like her win at Pontefract on June 10th where she ran the 6f 0.34 seconds faster than Meraas won her race over the same C&D, on very similar ground, 5 days later. Exceptional’s time was by far the fastest of four 6f races on the day and she was carrying 9st 1lb while Meraas ran under 8st 13lb. Today Meraas carries 9st 2lb while Exceptional looks much more favourably treated only carrying 8st 7lb. The first-time booking of the in form William Buick (Last 14 days: 10-33, 30%) catches the eye, she has won on Soft ground, and the stiff 6f here look’s ideal under today’s conditions.

The best offer is with William Hill who are paying 5 places. Please be careful if you are with BET365 who are offering the same odds but are only paying the first 4 home. Good luck!

Jibber Jabber

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