NEVER IN PARIS (nb) – 12.30pm HAYDOCK
WIN BET ADVISED AT 100/30 AVAILABLE WITH ALL THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS…
At first glance, this looks a tight little handicap on paper but having had an in-depth look at all 7 runners, watching I’m guessing about 15 race replays, and forensically examining their form comparing them against each other to see who comes out best at the weights I concluded Never In Paris was the one to be on.
The Racing Post Spotlight selection, Bungee Jump (7/2), looks high enough in the weights running off a career high mark of 95 and, having gone up 9lb for her last win on Good to Firm, will surely struggle to give the selection 20lb and carry top weight of 10 stone to victory on today’s unsuitable Soft ground. Magical Journey (7/2) is a nice prospect and looks the main danger after having ran to an RPR of 94 over this trip on today’s Soft in a Listed race at Newmarket last November. She also looked good on her seasonal debut and ran well for a long way before paying the price for trying to keep pace with top notch 3 year old sprinter, Art Power, who franked the form by comfortably winning a Group 3 race at Naas yesterday. However, giving the selection 13lb, I estimate she will have to run to an RPR of 100-105 to win this and if she does she fully deserves to. Dark Regard (4/1) has a good strike rate (4-10, 40%) but is up 6lb for a short head victory over this trip on Good to Firm, is also up in Class, with her worst run and heaviest defeat coming over this trip on Heavy Going. In general the quicker the surface the better her sire’s progeny do so she’s likely to struggle on today’s rain softened ground. Love Powerful (15/2) went up 4lb for a neck victory over this trip on last month’s seasonal debut and is not yet fully exposed. She is also returning to a more suitable trip after 5f being too sharp last time but her overall form doesn’t look good enough, the Richard Hannon yard are not exactly banging in the winners (Last 14 days: 7-74, 9%), and she is unraced on softer than Good. She could be a danger if she improves again and handles the conditions but the selection looks the more likely candidate to progress. Betsy Trotter (14/1) looks on a tough mark, has been beaten a combined total of 36.5 lengths in her last two runs, and isn’t suited by testing ground. Yolo Again (14/1) is down in Class and back on her last winning mark but has been well-beaten in her last 7 races at odds between 25/1 to 66/1, while only having dropped 3lb down the weights, and has been unplaced on all ten of her previous attempts at 6f.
The lightly-raced 3 year old Never In Paris, who cost £32,500 as a yearling, caught the eye here on her seasonal debut running on over 5f on Good to Soft ground 27 days ago where she looked better the further they went and being a No Nay Never filly out of Meeting Of Paris she has an ideal pedigree to be suited by today’s 6f on easy underfoot conditions. She finished 2.75 lengths 6th of 10 in that race and would have been even closer had her saddle not slipped in the last half furlong curtailing her momentum. The race is working out particularly well with the 2nd & 5th both winning on their next starts and the 3rd & 4th both placing in higher Class races. Garsman, who she was giving 5lb to and finished alongside is now rated 83 while the selection has been dropped 1lb getting to run off a mark of 81 today. I have her 7lb to 10lb ahead of her mark with further improvement highly likely stepping up in trip with a run under her belt. I would have Napped her but for the presence of Magical Journey but I’m hopeful she will prove very hard to beat.
Your feedback on the quality, length, and amount of detail contained in this longer than usual style of write-up where I give my opinion on the chances of all the runners would be very much appreciated so, if you have an opinion, please either leave a comment below or on Twitter. Thank you and good luck!
Jibber Jabber
If you like my write-ups and they’ve helped you then please…
Hi JJ for me personally the new style of right ups just prove how much care and due diligence goes into your selection and fills me with trust that even if not successful I follow the best tipster .
Hi Simon, thanks, I think about all the factors in the write-up when I’m analysing a race any way so I thought why not write them down and include them.
I appreciate the amount of research that goes into the selections and understand how time consuming it must be and fully understand your need to recharge your batteries. Thank you Simon
Thanks for the comprehensive and informative write up JJ. That must have been a fair few hours of work? Fingers crossed we are on the right one.
Cheers
Gary
Hi Gary, yes, it took me about 2 hours to analyse/weigh up the form and compose this longer style write-up. Thankfully, the race replays were only around a minute and 20 seconds long and for some I only watched the closing stages. This was excessive as I was trying this more in-depth type of write-up for the first time. However, I always spend at least an hour on any 8-10 horse race as it takes this to give each race the respect it deserves and evaluate the form properly. For big races at Cheltenham, for example, you’re talking about 2-3 hours per race.
Much appreciated
Hi JJ,
I’m new to the site and only been following for a few weeks. I’m super impressed with the hard work and genuine love that go’s in to your selections.
Is there any chance you may consider running a short price laying thread, highlighting overpriced, exposed favs? Your attention to detail would be excellent in this field
Hi Chris, thanks, “love” is a good word for it. Horse racing is a real passion of mine and I really enjoy the study aspect of selecting each tip. Some tipsters may only concentrate on their selection when analysing the form but I like to ensure their are no surprises lurking so do this forensic in-depth analysis of every horse when time constraints permit. I regularly lay horses and plan to include a “Lay Of The Day” column each day when Version 2 of our website goes “live” in the next 1-2 months.
That’s great news. Keep up the brilliant work. There must be literally hundreds of people out there just like me that really appreciate and learn from your relentless endeavour.