RAJINSKY – 3.35pm NEWCASTLE
COSMELLI – 3.35pm NEWCASTLE
BACK BOTH 0.5 PTS EACH WAY AT 12/1 & 14/1 RESPECTIVELY WITH MANY BOOKMAKERS PAYING THE FIRST 5 PLACES
The Betfair Northumberland Plate is the big handicap of the day and is live on ITV. It looks ultra-competitive as cases can be made for many of the 18 runners but we love a big race Saturday afternoon winner so I’m happy to throw a couple of darts at it in the hope we can get a big-priced winner.
At shorter prices, I really like the chances of the well-backed Caravan Of Hope (5/1) and wouldn’t put anyone off him but we like a bit of value so I’ve opted for a couple at bigger prices. Rainbow Dreamer (7/1) is really classy but could (hopefully) be a tad too high in the weights. There is plenty of money coming for King’s Advice who was put up by Kevin Blake on ITV Racing this morning but he’ll need to be very good because I think he is carrying way too much weight to win. We’ll see. So, the two I like are Rajinsky (16/1 on Betfair Exchange) and Cosmelli (also 16/1 on Betfair Exchange). I’m hoping the key piece of form is Rajinsky’s win on this surface over 1m6f at Wolverhampton last December in a race where the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th have all won since. It was his first try beyond 1m2f so he is completely unexposed at staying trips. He was given a “considerate” ride at Newbury on his seasonal debut 15 days ago where he finished 3rd of 10 over 1m4f and that should have put him spot on for this, his first try at 2 miles. I can see the step up in trip unlocking further improvement, he has a decent draw in stall 9, and he has got in here near the bottom of the weights carrying only 8st 2lb.
Cosmelli is my second choice but I think he is well worth a bet at the price given he is a C&D winner who only went down by 2.25 lengths in this last year off an 8lb higher mark. This has been his main target all year and the latest from his trainer is, “His work has been brilliant this week and I don’t think I’ve ever had him better.”
It’s a very tough race but I’m hopeful that backing both these each way at 12/1 & 14/1 will return a profit. Good luck!
Jibber Jabber
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