1.55pm Cheltenham – 2m5f (Old) Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
1 PT WIN BET ADVISED AT 6/4
Hi guys, you can see here I tipped Bob Olinger at 9/4 last Thursday as one of my Festival “Bankers”. I have had my eye on the Henry De Bromhead trained 6 year old gelding Bob Olinger since his 10 length bumper win at Gowran in March 2020 and, as you can see, I first mentioned him on Twitter back on the 18th of November last year before tipping him at 20/1 for this race two days later after he finished a length 2nd of 15 to the much more experienced Ferny Hollow over what looked an unsuitably short 2-mile trip. Since then, he has won twice by 14 lengths and a Grade 1 at Naas back in January by 6.5 lengths to Willie Mullins very good gelding Blue Lord. He hasn’t ran at Cheltenham but has shaped like he will be well-suited by the stamina test the run-in up the hill and this 2m5f trip will provide. At 9/4, the value has long gone but with more to come from this big scopey type he ticks an awful lot of boxes and is quickly becoming one of my bets of the week.
1.55pm Cheltenham – 3m½f (3m80y) (Old) Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Broadway Novices’ Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
1 PT WIN BET ADVISED AT ODDS OF 4/9
You can see here I tipped Monkfish at 4/6 last Thursday as one of my Festival “Bankers”. This Willie Mullins trained 7 year old gelding has won his last 6 races and is already a 3-time Grade 1 winner including the Albert Bartlett over hurdles around this trip on the New course here last year. He has looked even better over fences this season winning all three runs including Grade 1 races at Leopardstown the last twice running to a career best RPR of 170 when romping home by 11 lengths there last time. He is a superb jumper who stays and his last run was also backed up by the clock. There is absolutely no value now at 4/9 but it is difficult to see what beats him so he will be in plenty of punters accumulators.
2.30pm Cheltenham – 2m5f (Old) Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
GUARD YOUR DREAMS (nb)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT ODDS OF 10/1 WITH PADDY POWER & BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK WHO ARE PAYING 7 PLACES
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT ODDS OF 16/1 WITH BET365 WHO ARE PAYING 6 PLACES
This 26-runner handicap looks wide open and one of the toughest races of the week to find the winner of so I’m happy to throw a couple of darts at it. With that said, I like the each way chances of both Guard Your Dreams and Birchdale while I think Dans Le Vent is over-priced at 100/1 and worth a small each way interest with Betfred who are paying 6 places. He is a fairly exposed handicapper but is 7lb better off with Craigneiche for a running on 11.5 lengths 4th of 12 over 2m3.5f at Ascot back in January. He runs off a nice low weights today, will be suited by the extra 1.5 furlongs, and I could see him finishing somewhere between 4th and 8th. I’m convinced the progressive 5 year old gelding Guard Your Dreams is under-rated by his mark of 135 and he really caught me eye running on over 16.5f last time when finishing 7 lengths 6th of 23 to Soaring Glory (4th behind Appreciate It yesterday) at Newbury. On that occasion, he looked like he was crying out for a step up in trip (suits on pedigree) having been out-paced for most of the race and was still in 22nd place at the 3 furlong pole before motoring home. He is already a 3-time winner over hurdles who will be suited by today’s extra 5 furlongs and at only 5 years old is open to improvement and unexposed. He is my Next Best (nb) bet today and I can see him going close. Regarding Birchdale, I think it is interesting Nico De Boinville is on him out of Nicky Henderson’s 4 entries in the race while the trainer is raving about his chances saying, “I rate his chance quite highly here”. He was a 9.75 lengths 8th of 25 in the race last year off a 2lb higher mark coming back from a 110 day break. He has had two prep runs this year and a fitter, stronger, year older, Birchdale might not be far away today.
3.05pm Cheltenham – 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT ODDS OF 11/1 WITH UNIBET
Willie Mullins 9 year old gelding and 4/5 Favourite, Chacun Pour Soi, has been all the rage for this for a long time and this 4-time Grade 1 winner has done little wrong winning 6 of his last 7 with his only defeat coming to this Friday’s Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard! LMAO (You heard it here first!). He is the most likely winner, however, I’m not a fan of tipping odds on Favourites so have opted for some each way value in Nube Negra who you can see here I tipped in an Ante Post Each Way Lucky 15 back on the 26th of last month. The selection is a classy 7 year old who took his form over fences to new heights when impressively beating Altior by 3.5 lengths eased down late on in a Grade 2 over this trip at Kempton over the Christmas period. He hasn’t ran since then (80 days) but was coming back from a 323 day break on that occasion so obviously goes well fresh. The Dan Skelton yard are in decent form (Last 14 days: 10-62, 16%), Nube Negra has course form having ran well here in the Fred Winter as a 4 year old, and this unexposed sort could still have plenty more to come in this sphere.
3.40pm Cheltenham – 3m6f (3m6f37y) (X-Country) Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 10/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING BOOKMAKERS ALL PAYING 4 PLACES
I had Easysland, the current odds-on Favourite, tipped in this last year when he beat the re-opposing Tiger Roll by 17 lengths and if back to his best he could easily do something similar this year but there has to be a small doubt about his form after a below par 4th over C&D on Good ground (better than he wants) back in November so I don’t think he can be backed at short odds. He hasn’t ran since and the drying conditions at the track are hardly in his favour with all his wins coming on Soft to Heavy. There also has to be major concerns over the form of living legend but now 11 years old Tiger Roll after his 65 lengths last of 6 at Navan last month. Hardly an ideal prep and we already know he isn’t going for a hatrick bid in this years Grand National. So, this race could throw up a surprise winner. The Racing Post are tipping Hogan’s Height who has been backed in from 129/1 on Betfair Exchange over the past week to a current 29/1 (bookies are best-priced 25/1 with BET365 & William Hill). I’m not sure about him at all as I don’t see him staying 3m6f but I could be wrong. I’ve opted for Irish raider Some Neck because he looks the safest option with not many of the runners coming here in form. He won over C&D back in December getting up late to beat the re-opposing Defi Des Carres by a short-head and is 9lb better off with that rival today. He appeared to be helped by first-time cheek-pieces (retained) on that occasion, the in for Champion jockey Richard Johnson (Last 14 days: 6-26,23%) is an eye-catching first-time booking, he will be fit on his fifth start of the season, and still unexposed in this discipline there could be further improvement to come. He looks a decent each way bet at 10/1 with several bookmakers paying the first 4 home.
4.15pm Cheltenham – 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 9/1 WITH PADDY POWER & BETFAIR PAYING 6 PLACES
This looked the most competitive race of the day guys so I advise keeping your stakes small. There are at least 10 horses of the 19-runners with winning chances so please don’t expect too much. With that said, I have gone with the highly progressive Venetiam Williams trained 8 year old gelding Ibleo who has won his last two and may not have stopped progressing yet. The yard is in form (Last 14 days: 6-21, 29%) and there could be more to come from him.
4.50pm Cheltenham – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-6yo)
SIR GERHARD (NAP)
2 PT WIN BET ADVISED AT 2/1
I have mentioned on Twitter in recent weeks I am with Sir Gerhard in this and he is my NAP of the day. The selection is an unbeaten 6 year old who has recently moved to Willie Mullins. He has already achieved a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 131 twice and there should be further improvement to come on only his fourth start. The better ground today should suit, Rachel Blackmore is an excellent first-time booking, and this £400,000 purchase should take all the beating.
Just a reminder that while I suggest bookies to bet with because they have the best price available or are offering to pay extra places in a race these are purely profit optimising common sense choices for your benefit and I receive absolutely nothing from them. I am not affiliated with any bookmakers! Good luck today!
P.S. You can see my Cheltenham Festival results for all 28 races in both 2019 & 2020 here
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