1.30pm Cheltenham – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
1 PT WIN BET ADVISED AT WIDELY AVAILABLE ODDS OF 9/4
Hi guys, you can read the full write-up for Dysart Dynamo here.
2.10pm Cheltenham – 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
HAUT EN COLEURS
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT A WDIELY AVAILABLE 7/1 WITH SEVERAL FIRMS PAYING 4 PLACES
At the head of the market, Edwardstone (11/4), Blue Lord (9/2), & Riviere D’Etel (9/2) have obvious winning chances but offer little value at their current prices and, while Edwardstone has done nothing wrong and I prefer him of the three he isn’t exactly progressing (ran to an RPR of 164 on his last 3 starts) so I think they are all beatable.
So, where is the value in the race? The two I like at each way prices are Haut En Coleurs (7/1 with several firms paying 4 places) and Coeur Sublime (widely available at 14/1 for 4 places).
I’m not saying either of these two are definitely going to win the race but I do believe either could and to me they represent the value if there is any to be found in the race at all.
Haut En Coleurs is an unexposed Willie Mullins trained 5 year old gelding who ran to an RPR of 155 winning at Leopardstown two starts back before departing early when sent off at just 100/30 in the Grade 1 won by Blue Lord at Leopardstown 38 days ago. He fell far too early that day to know how he would have done in the race but it didn’t look a bad fall so hopefully he will be none the worse for it and he could have been coming in here as Favourite if things had transpired differently. He undoubtedly is the least exposed and has much more scope for improvement than many of his rivals. He is coming in for support and could easily have a bigger run in him.
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT A WDIELY AVAILABLE 14/1 WITH SEVERAL FIRMS PAYING 4 PLACES
Coeur Sublime is one of two Henry De Bromhead runners in the race and I think it is a bit of a tip in itself that Rachel Blackmore is riding him rather than his other runner (who I know Tom Segal from the Racing Post is keen on), Magic Daze. Another thing that put me on to Coeur Sublime was that he had a much easier possible assignment in the Grade 3 Grand Annual where he would have been among the Favourites but instead connections have opted for this Grade 1.
It’s true the selection finished 14 lengths behind the re-opposing Riviere D’Etel when they met at Leopardstown back in December but, on that occasion, he was giving the mare 13lb so is 6lb better off here while Riviere D’Etel already had 3 runs under her belt for the season while Coeur Sublime was having just his second start of the campaign. He will be fully-fit here. He also has course form having finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle back in 2019.
His trainer says in the Racing Post, “Coeur Sublime is in great form. We’ve decided to come here rather than the Grand Annual and he goes there with a chance. It was a nice confidence booster for him at Gowran last time and he has travelled over really nicely.” So, he comes in to the race in form and while he might appear to have a difficult task at the weights I don’t think it is insurmountable and under Rachel Blackmore can see him going well.
2.50pm Cheltenham – 3m1f (Old) Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT A 12/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 7 PLACES
This is ultra-competitive as the betting would suggest with 7/1 joint Favourites in Does He Know and Death Duty and, let’s be honest, is going to be very difficult to pick the winner of but with several firms paying the first 7 places (Skybet, William Hill, Betfair, & Betfred) you’d like to think there could be some each way value available.
I thought Tea Clipper could go well for the bang in form Tom Lacey yard (Last 14 days: 5-16, 31%). He has course form having finished 3rd of 26 in last years Coral Cup at the Festival, he is a good ground horse so will be suited by the recent and forecast drying conditions at the track, and he has won fresh 3-times so should be fine coming back from a 79-day break. He has had a recent wind-op which may help and the application of first-time cheek-pieces could spark some improvement from the 7 year old gelding.
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT A 7/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 7 PLACES
I have liked the Gordon Elliott trained 7 year old gelding Floueur for this race for a while now and to be honest him and Tea Clipper were difficult to split. He was a very good running-on 3rd of 22 giving weight to the top notch Galopin Des Champs in last years Martin Pipe over 2m4f and a year stronger/more mature he looks to have a great chance of winning this off only 3lb higher.
Floueur finished a 7 lengths 3rd of 13 over 3m4f on Heavy at Punchestown 30 days ago to Death Duty. He finished his race off well enough on that occasion but, unsurprisingly, finished tired making a mistake at the last. He shaped like the 3 furlong drop in trip here might be ideal and he is versatile ground-wise having beat Frontal Assault on Good/Yielding over 2m5.5f at Fairyhouse back in January.
Fully-fit here on his fifth start of the season with excellent apprentice Jordan Gainford taking a useful 3lb off he looks, barring mishaps, likely to go close with further improvement still possible.
3.30pm Cheltenham – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 9/2 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS WHO ARE PAYING 3 PLACES
The unbeaten Irish mare, Honeysuckle, has been all the rage for this 10-runner event for a long time now having won it last year and having won all her 14 starts it would be little surprise to see the mare win again with her looking as good as ever. However, she is 8 years old now and providing little value for each way punters as odds-on 8-11 Favourite I’m going to take her on with something at an each way price.
What I would say about this race is it is a very poor betting medium for each way punters with an odds-on Favourite who looks sure to go close, connections strongly fancying second Favourite Appreciate It, and all the bookmakers only paying the first three horses home so my advice is to keep your stakes very small and your powder dry waiting for better betting opportunities than this later in the day/week.
It was well advertised in a Cheltenham preview night in Dublin last Thursday night that the Willie Mullins team are very keen on the chances of Appreciate It and think he can beat Honeysuckle. I had Appreciate It tipped when he won last years Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival so I know the horse well but he hasn’t been seen since. However, Willie Mullins is quoted as saying in the Racing Post, “He’s been doing everything right at home under David Casey, who is his work rider all the time. He’s very happy with him and I’m happy with what I’m seeing. I hope he’s done enough work and we’re happy that he has ? we couldn’t get much more work into him. He’s schooled well and at home he’s doing all the right things. He’s a sensible horse and shouldn’t be fazed on the day.” So, if Willie thinks he is ready that’s good enough for me and he is my selection. Those looking an even bigger each way price might want to back Teahupoo for the Gordon Elliott team at 10/1 as he is a progressive 5 year old who has won his last three and they think he will be suited by the better ground he will be facing today.
To conclude, Appreciate It is a tentative selection in an unappealing race so please keep your stakes small and watch it for the awesome spectacle it should be.
4.10pm Cheltenham – 2m4f (2m3f200y) (Old) Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
QUEENS BROOK (NAP)
1 PT EACH WAY BET AT A WIDELY AVAILABLE 4/1 WITH MANY FIRMS PAYING 4 PLACES
The progressive Gordon Elliott trained 7 year old mare Queens Brook beat the excellent Willie Mullins trained 7 year old gelding Ciel De Neige, who has won all three starts since, by a very comfortable 4 lengths over this trip at Fairyhouse back in November before being given a 113-day break. When she returned in February she went down by 1.5 lengths to the re-opposing Burning Victory (10/1) shaping every bit like she would come on for the run with Gordon Elliott commenting in the Racing Post today, “I have to say I was delighted with her run at Punchestown as she needed it. I liked the way she went to the line there. This slightly longer trip will suit and all her form suggests she has got a live chance.”
I’ve liked her for a while for this now and think last month’s run will have put her spot on for this. It is my opinion Queens Brook will take all the beating in this. She is my NAP of the day. Usually for my Naps I recommend a 2 point win bet but with most firms paying 4 places on the race and Skybet the only bookmaker I am aware off paying 5 places (but only offering 7/2 as I write this) it would be foolish (not to mention mathematically imprudent) not to take advantage of these offers with the bookmakers fighting each other for your money so my advice is to bet her for 1 point each way preferably with one of the firms still offering 4/1.
4.50pm Cheltenham – 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 16/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 6 PLACES
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 20/1 WITH THE FOLLOWING FIRMS PAYING 6 PLACES
The inclusion of the Mullins trained Gaelic Warrior (5/2 Fav) in this has spoiled the race for me a little as the word from the yard is that he can’t/won’t be beat but he has no recent form not having run since last June in France and it is very difficult to see what he has done there to achieve/warrant a rating of 129. So, I can’t tip/back him but Willie does well with this type and is never far wrong so it would be no surprise to see him win. As a tipster, this has made life difficult for me and the race a much less appealing betting medium because you always like to be going in to a race thinking you have a good chance of winning and aren’t playing for second place with your each way shot from the get go. With all that said, let’s hope he under-performs and that we are on the each way value as there should be some with the firms listed above all paying the first 6 home in the race.
I think Brazil (8/1) & HMS Seahorse (best price 11/1 with BET365) can both go well and wouldn’t put anyone off having an each way interest on either of them but I have decided to go for a couple at even bigger prices in the form of Saint Segal (16/1) & Too Friendly (20/1) thinking both could be on fair marks carrying 10st 12lb & 10st 11lb respectively.
Saint Segal finished 2nd of 11 in a Grade 1 over the Christmas period, has been trained with this race in mind, could be well-in here dropped in to a handicap off a mark of just 126, and on just his fourth start this 4 year old gelding could easily have further improvement to come with a first-time tongue-tie applied.
Too Friendly runs for the in form Dan Skelton yard (Last 14 days: 9-39, 23%) and may have been helped by a recent wind operation. He is coming back from a longer than ideal 94-day break but has won twice after similar 82 & 87-day breaks so might be best caught fresh. He could also be well-suited by the strongly run race he is likely to get here and I can see him at least placing in the top 6 home.
5.30pm Cheltenham – 3m6f (3m5f201y) (Old) Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET AT 8/1 WITH SKYBET & BETFRED PAYING 3 PLACES IN THIS 6 HORSE RACE
The improving 7 year old gelding Pats Fancy from the Rebecca Curtis yard who has won five races at the Festival including this race with Teaforthree back in 2012 has been keeping company with the likes of Bravemansgame and Imperial Alcazar this season beating the latter by 11 lengths over 2m7.5f at Chepstow over the Christmas period before going down by 3.5 lengths to Bravemansgame.
The selection couldn’t match the winner for speed late on but it was still a fine effort and he is an out-and-out stayer who is expected to improve stepping up in trip for the first-time. As a 7 year old, he is less exposed and more open to improvement than many of his rivals and he won’t be inconvenienced by the Going if they jump off on Good ground. It will probably take a run rated at somewhere between 156-160 to win this so he’ll have to improve by a few pounds to do it but that is definitely possible now stepping up in trip. He looks the each way value in this 6-runner race particularly with Skybet & Betfred still paying 3 places even though the race is now down to just 6 runners due to non-runners having been declared.
You can read a much more in-depth analysis of this race here.
Let’s hope we hit a winner or two guys and best of luck with all your bets today and this week.
P.S. You can see my Cheltenham Festival results for all 84 races in 2019, 2020, & 2021 here
If you like my write-ups and they’ve helped you then please…