Hi guys, as you would expect it has been a tough week and we’re down to the fourth and final day of this year’s Cheltenham Festival which is historically one of the biggest betting days of the year so let’s hope we can get a result or two. Best of luck with all your bets.
1.30pm Cheltenham – 2m1f (2m179y) (New) JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo)
1 POINT WIN BET ADVISED AT A WIDELY AVAILABLE 6/4
This isn’t a good heat for each way backers with the top three in the market well ahead of the rest on ratings. They are all trained by Willie Mullins and are Lossiemouth (6/4), Blood Destiny (5/2), and Gala Marceau (9/2). I expect Lossiemouth to win as she has been the choice of Paul Townend and was really unlucky to finish 2nd behind Gala Marceau at Leopardstown last month after being hampered. Prior to that she had looked highly progressive, she has been supported for this, and provided she has normal luck in running she should take this.
2.10pm Cheltenham – 2m1f (2m179y) (New) McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 11/2 WITH BETFRED PAYING 6 PLACES
The first thing I’d like to say is you should be placing your each way bets with those bookmakers offering extra place “insurance” on the race. Skybet are the only firm paying the first 8 home, Betway are paying the first 7, most other firms are offering 6 places, while both Bet Victor & Boylesports are only paying a very poor 5 places. Shop around!
Pembroke has been well-supported for this with good reason. The 6 year old gelding didn’t stay 2m4.5f at the course last time but prior to that looked highly progressive so should have plenty more to come. Running off a mark of just 136 he looks well-in and the Dan Skelton yard are in form (Last 14 days: 7-35, 20%). It will be a shock if he isn’t in the first 6 home so looks a “bet to nothing” at 11/2. I can see him running a big race.
At bigger prices, I could see Ballyadam (10/1), Path Doroux (16/1), and First Street (16/1) running well so those of you looking something at a bigger price may want to include some of them in your each way accumulators.
2.50pm Cheltenham – 3m (2m7f213y) (New) Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
CORBETTS CROSS (NAP)
2 PTS WIN BET ADVISED AT A WIDELY AVAILABLE 11/4
I spent time trying to find something at a big price to beat the Favourite in this but I couldn’t find it I’m afraid so he is my Nap today. Corbetts Cross (11/4) is owned by J P McManus and has looked highly progressive as a 6 year old winning his last two races. He jumps well, has proven stamina, and off a mark of 148 could easily have more to offer. He is my Nap and 2 point win bet of the day.
3.30pm Cheltenham – 3m2½f (3m2f70y) (New) Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 14/1 WITH SKYBET PAYING 5 PLACES
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 14/1 WITH SKYBET PAYING 5 PLACES
At 6/4 and 9/2 respectively Galopin Des Champs and A Plus Tard have obvious winning chances but I have decided to try instead to find you a couple at a price with Skybet paying 5 places on the race. They are Ahoy Senor (16/1) and Minella Indo (16/1). You can get as big as 22/1 for Ahoy Senor with Coral and Ladbrokes but they are only paying 3 places on the race so offer little value.
Ahoy Senor is an 8 year old who ran to a career best Racing Post Rating of 170 when he won here over a furlong shorter back in January. He will be fully-fit on his fifth start since October, you couldn’t ask for a better jockey than Derek Fox, and the Lucinda Russell yard are in top form (Last 14 days: 11-23, 48%). He will need to improve again to beat the likes of Galopin Des Champs but you should never be afraid of one horse so he could run a big race.
Minella Indo now a 10 year old will be bucking the trends if he comes out on top but he won the race back in 2021 but he has been reported by his trainer as, “probably had his best prep ever going in to the race”. Henry De Bromhead has his string peaking at exactly the right time (Last 14 days: 6-36, 17%) and Minella Indo could at least place.
4.10pm Cheltenham – 3m2½f (3m2f70y) (New) St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
1 POINT WIN BET ADVISEDD11/4 WITH THESE FIRMS
I want to see local trainer David Christie (lives about 50-miles from me) take this for Northern Ireland. Lol. I’m never sentimental when it comes to betting and I’m not being here either as he is one of the main men when it comes to Hunters’ Chases having had the three Ante Post Favourites for this race before deciding about a week ago to only run Vaucelet. He says, “We’ve deliberately kept him fresh for this. He’s a high-class horse and the nicer the ground the better he’d be, he’s a beautiful mover. He’s travelled over well. We took him to Stratford last year to get him used to the travelling because he was quite highly strung and that seems to have helped him.” I can see him running a big race.
I did spend time on the race but honestly couldn’t really split the rest of them. If you want to bet something at an each way price Tom Segal, from the Racing Post’s Pricewise column, likes both Rocky’s Howya (9/1) & The Storyteller (10/1).
4.50pm Cheltenham – 2m4½f (2m4f127y) (New) Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
1 POINT WIN BET AT A WDIELY AVAILABLE 15/8
This looks a match on Paper between the two at the head of the market Allegorie De Vassy (15/8) & Impervious (15/8). Of the two, I am with Impervious who is more experienced and a better jumper than the Mullins trained De Vassy. Ground/trip suit, she will be fit on her fourth start of the season, and she importantly has course form having ran in last year’s Mares’ Novices Hurdle.
If you are determined to back something at a price, I wouldn’t completely rule out Gordon Elliott’s Riviere D’Etel returning to form after having been beaten by 37 lengths last of 4 when an odds-on 8/11 Fav last time. However, it’s risky and takes a leap of faith to get involved after that.
5.30pm Cheltenham – 2m4½f (2m4f56y) (New) Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 9/2 WITH MANY FIRMS PAYING 5 PLACES
NO ORDINARY JOE
0.5 PTS EACH WAY BET ADVISED AT 14/1 WITH UNIBET PAYING 5 PLACES
There has been lots of money for Iroko (6/1) this morning in this 21-runner race after winning his last race by 14 lengths but I worry he could be a little inexperienced to win a race like this and there’s no guarantee he will stay the extra furlong today with this historically going to a 3-miler. Could go well but not for me.
I’m with Cool Survivor (9/2) & No Ordinary Joe (14/1). Cool Survivor is a 6 year old Gordon Elliott trained gelding who has a nice profile to win a race like this. He has proven he stays the trip and further which is important as stamina will surely come in to play in this under what sre likely to be stamina sapping conditions. His 4th in a recent Grade 1 is form which reads well in the context of this race, he will be fit on his fifth start since October, his trainer won the race in 2016 & 2017 so knows what it takes, and expect him to be finishing fast up the hill over this trip which is shorter than he is used to.
No Ordinary Joe is a Nicky Henderson trained 7 year old who has an experienced in-form jockey booked in the form of Luca Morgan (Last 14 days: 5-17,29%). He has course form, stays this trip well, and may yet have more to offer running off a mark of 139.
Just a reminder that while I suggest bookies to bet with because they have the best price available or are offering to pay extra places in a race these are purely profit optimising common sense choices for your benefit and I receive absolutely nothing from them. I am not affiliated with any bookmakers!
P.S. You can see my Cheltenham Festival results for all 84 races in 2019, 2020, & 2021 here
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